‘INDIA MAY SEE A PEAK IN MAY-AUG’
The coronavirus disease in India is likely to see its peak between May and August, said Dr Randeep Guleria, director All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) in Delhi.
NEW DELHI: The coronavirus disease in India is likely to see its peak between May and August, said Dr Randeep Guleria, director All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) in Delhi.
“This is based on several mathematic modelling data that is available on disease progression, depending on whose data you are looking at. Several data experts are at work, but one cannot definitely predict when the disease is going to peak in India because it depends on a number of variables that are dynamic in nature, such as the effect of lockdown and other measures. The peak may vary accordingly, which is why even the same group sometimes comes up with different projections. The current projections give a range between May and August,” said Dr Guleria.
The graph is currently showing an upwards trend, with the total number of Covid-19 positive cases reported in a day having nearly doubled from 1,790 a week ago on April 30 to 3,561 cases on May 7, taking the total number of infected to 52,952 so far. The number of deaths reported from Covid-19 currently is 1,783.
The number of critical Covid-19
cases -- those put on ventilator, needing oxygen support, or undergoing treatment in the ICU -- has seen significant increase, with 1.1% of the active cases on ventilators, 3.3% on oxygen support and 4.8% patients in ICUs across India as on May 7, according to health ministry data.
The number has shot up significantly in just three days, as on May 4, the Union health minister Harsh Vardhan had announced that the percentage of ventilator patients fluctuated between 0.33 and 0.37%, those needing oxygen support was 1.5% and those undergoing treatment in ICUs was 2.34%. “Our disease control is the best in the world,” said the health minister.
Dr Guleria agrees. “The number of patients needing ventilator or on ICU beds may have shot up in past few days but the overall number of critically ill patients is still very small ..... within limits of what we have as far as resources are concerned,” he said.
HEALTH MIN REVIEW
The health minister on Thursday held a high level meeting with Jai Pratap Singh, health minister of Uttar Pradesh, and Naba Kishore Das, health minister of Odisha, and senior officials from both the Centre and the states to review the situation, actions being taken and preparedness for management of Covid-19. “Surveillance for Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) / Influenza Like Illness (ILI) should be intensified in unaffected districts and districts which have not reported cases from last 14 days and more through the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) network in collaboration with Medical College Hospitals. Such measures will help to indicate the presence of any possible hidden infection at an early stage,” he said at the meeting.
He also suggested that along with the surveillance teams in the containment areas, community volunteers may also be identified at the ward-level to spread awareness and who can play an effective role in removing the stigma prevailing in the society.
The peak may vary, which is why even the same group sometimes comes up with different projections ... give a range between May and August DR RANDEEP GULERIA,
AIIMS director