2 Universal coverage doesn’t always translate into vulnerable population coverage
Population projections for 2021 at the state level confirm the findings of the district level data. Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Uttarakhand and Delhi have administered the highest doses per capita; and Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Tamil Nadu have administered the least. But a break-up by age suggests not all states with the highest universal coverage have covered the highest share of their older population.
For example, the top 10 states (north eastern states except Assam merged as one) by share of population covered by at least one dose (a split by age is available from the Co-WIN dashboard for this) among the 22 states for which we have population projections are Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, the seven north-eastern states, and Haryana. Himachal, which is about 7 percentage points ahead of Kerala, has done well in covering its 45-plus population too. Over 3/4th of this age group has been covered by at least one dose although the share of 45+ population in the state (30.6%) is the third highest among the 22 states. The remaining nine states have covered roughly similar shares of their total population (14% to 19%) with at least one dose. However, the difference in the coverage of their respective 45+ populations is much bigger. Kerala, for instance, has covered only 46% of its 45+ population and Chhattisgarh, 66%. This is because Chhattisgarh has a smaller 45+ population (23.6% of total population) and Kerala the highest (36%). Rajasthan and Uttarakhand are similarly ahead in inoculating a higher share of their older population among states with similar levels of universal coverage because of a younger population. But Delhi, Uttarakhand, the north-eastern states, and Haryana are not. They are, however, ahead of their peers in vaccinating their younger population, despite having the highest, 4th highest, 2nd highest, and 6th highest share of 18-44 population, respectively among the 22 states.