Kharif sowing so far lags last year’s by 11%

THE JUNE-SEPT RAIN-BEARING SYSTEM, WHICH WATERS 60% OF THE COUNTRY’S NET-SOWN AREA, IS DEFICIENT BY 8%, IMD SAID

NEW DELHI: A patchy monsoon continues to crimp planting of kharif or summer-sown crops, as the total area sown by farmers till mid-July, a period when sowing peaks, was down 11% from a year ago, official data show. Total acreage of kharif crops stood at 61.1 million hectare, nearly 11% less than the 69.2 million hectare sown during the corresponding period last year.

The June-September rainbearing system, which waters nearly 60% of the country’s netsown area, is deficient by 8% since its onset in June, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The national weather agency officially forecast a normal monsoon, which helps farmers grow plentiful crops. This week’s forecast valid until July 25 has predicted “active monsoon conditions” across the country.

While rains were plentiful after their onset, recording 28% surplus up until the third week of June, the monsoon entered a hiatus around June 19 driven by unfavourable weather patterns. It has yet to recover fully.

In July, the most critical month during the kharif season because it determines yields and crop health, rainfall so far has been 26% deficient.

“When July rains are deficient, it first impacts areas with no irrigation,” said Jeet Singh Sandhu, vice-chancellor of the SKN Agricultural University, Jaipur.

On July 18, Union minister of science and technology, Jitendra Singh, visited the IMD’s headquarters in New Delhi to enquire about the monsoon’s progress, urging scientists to “focus on more accurate forecasting”, according to a statement from Singh’s ministry.

The monsoon is critical for Asia’s third-largest economy, as half of the population depends on a farm-derived income. The rains also replenish more than 100 nationally important reservoirs, critical for drinking, power supply, and irrigation.

A good harvest drives up rural demand for goods and services, helping the economy grow.

The monsoon is one of the factors that also influence the Reserve Bank’s inflation forecast and monetary policy, which determines key interest rates.

In 2020-21, when India faced a recession due to the pandemic, agriculture was the only sector to post positive growth of about 3.1%.

This helped to keep farm incomes steady. This year, robust farm incomes are critical too to cushion the impact of a devastating second wave of coronavirus infections.

The share of agriculture in the country’s gross domestic product, a key measure of output, is nearly 17%.

Overall, the total area under crops till mid-July, when compared to normal area, was less by 3%, but some crops critical to keeping food prices low showed deficiencies.

The normal area is an average of the area cultivated during the past five years.

As on July 16, 2021, the area under rice, a key driver of farm incomes, stood at 16 million hectare, which is near normal but 7% down from last year’s levels.

The area under pulses, a key driver of food inflation during periodic shortages, was 13% below normal at 7 million hectare. Compared to last year, the area under pulses is lower by 12%.

Planting of coarse cereals like sorghum and pearl millet – crops usually grown by the poorest farmers with small landholdings – is down 21% compared to what is considered normal for this time of the year.

Last year, driven by robust showers, sowing of kharif crops had risen sharply, exceeding normal levels in June itself.

“There could be a major shift in soybean, cotton and maize acreages across the rainfall deficit states if monsoon fails to revive as forecast,” said Hetal Gandhi, an economist with Crisil Ltd, Mumbai, a ratings firm.

Farmers have managed to sow oilseeds, such as soybean, in about 12 million hectare, which is close to normal levels but down 14% since a year ago, the official data show.