Toa Republic of reason
As India enters its 75th year of independence, amid challenges that range from a pandemic to rising school dropout rates, the climate crisis and an economy that has suffered body blows, there are answers, but they won’t be the easy ones. May we return to first principles, and may the science be with us
As India celebrates its 75th Independence Day — that’s today; independent India will turn 75 years old next August 15 — it’s easy to focus on the negatives. It’s easy because, honestly, India, now a lower-middle-income country of 75, has a long way to go. For instance, there are still far too many poor people in the country; estimates of this number vary widely (and differ wildly) but given that one of the government’s most popular, and muchneeded, schemes during the pandemic — it has been extended till later this year — involves providing free grain to 800 million people, it is safe to say that there are hundreds of millions of poor in India, still. India’s 1.3 billion people, across 28 states and eight Union Territories, are not just separated by community, caste, class, and cash, it sometimes appears as if they are living in entirely different eras. Parts of the country are in the 21st century but there are others that are still in the 20th (and some corners still in the 19th, perhaps). And even as it lives in many centuries at once, the country faces first-generation, second-generation, and third-generation challenges — again all at once.
This is a theme I have written on extensively, but at the risk of plagiarising myself, consider the challenges: sanitation, water supply, and health (first-generation issues that many now-developed countries solved at least a century ago); manufacturing (second-generation); and higher-order questions (such as dealing with the climate crisis, or how the 100-year life will affect countries) that perhaps require an entire ministry of the future.
These are complex issues that cannot be reduced to slogans or campaigns. The only thing required to solve them is scientific temper, or what Bertrand Russell so accurately described as “critical undogmatic receptiveness”.
Yet, recent years have seen a turn away from science and scientific temper, especially in matters concerning national pride (if only misplaced). L’affaire Covaxin, where the drugs regulator approved what would turn out to be an excellent locally made vaccine purely on belief (Phase 3 data, even interim, was not available at the time) is a case in point.
For months after, seemingly rational and intelligent people continued to support this approval — again, purely on belief (not in the vaccine; in their case, this was that the government could do no wrong).
This tendency is also evident in the focus on managing data on dashboards instead of addressing the underlying problems. This sometimes throws up counterintuitive results (think state rankings) that might once have been difficult to justify. That’s no longer the case.
Recent years have also seen a turn towards extreme majoritarianism, a phenomenon that may have once been fringe but which is now definitely mainstream. This is a dangerous combination for here’s what it says — “I know I am right and I have the numbers behind me to prove it.” And adding to this already considerable force are filter bubbles (thank you, Eli Pariser) enabled by social-media platforms.
The most significant short-term challenge facing India is not who will win the elections in Uttar Pradesh next year, but the Covid-19 pandemic.
The country will have to administer in excess of 9.5 million vaccine doses a day between now and the end of the year to meet its stated target of vaccinating its entire adult population by December 31. It also needs to start thinking about a schedule for booster doses — at least for the most vulnerable — and vaccinating those between the ages of 12 and 18.
Science and the scientific temper will provide the answers.
The most important medium-term challenge facing India is not who will win the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but dealing with the havoc wreaked by the pandemic on education — anecdotal data on dropout rates from rural India are frightening — and the economy, especially small businesses. The pandemic may have disadvantaged an entire generation (in terms of education), and it is likely that many small businesses forced to shut down during the pandemic will never rise again.
Science and the scientific temper will provide the answers.
And the most important long-term challenge facing India is not about whether we will lean left or right, but the climate crisis. The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released earlier this week, made this clear.
Here’s what even the intermediate scenario (not the worst-case one) presented in that export could mean for India. One, a change in cropping patterns or what can be grown where. Two, the need for more water for irrigation.
Three, more erratic monsoons and the consequent problems caused by flooding. Four, coastal cities having to deal with rising sea levels. Five, more intense cyclones. There’s more, but I will stop.
But once again, science and the scientific temper will provide the answers.
On India’s 75th Independence Day, all of us should make three promises that will help us navigate the coming 25 years — to respect science; to cultivate and adopt a scientific temper; and to address all problems (irrespective of their nature) by going back to first principles. And the first principles of some of today’s hot-button issues can be found in the Indian Constitution — a document that has kept us going, against all odds, for three quarters of a century.
Happy Independence Day and may the science be with us.
LET’S RESOLVE TO ADDRESS ALL PROBLEMS BY GOING BACK TO FIRST PRINCIPLES. AND THE FIRST PRINCIPLES OF SOME OF TODAY’S HOT-BUTTON ISSUES CAN BE FOUND IN THE INDIAN CONSTITUTION — A DOCUMENT THAT HAS KEPT US GOING, AGAINST ALL ODDS, FOR THREE QUARTERS OF A CENTURY