Plan the caste count with care
Bihar’s decision may open a Pandora’s Box. It must move cautiously and with transparency
One of the earliest, and most polarising, demands of the Mandal movement that upended politics in the Hindi heartland was that of a caste census. The potential of caste conflict, political churn and possible unrest kept governments away from this controversial project — with the exception of the United Progressive Alliance 2 government, but the data of the socio-economic and caste census ordered in 2011 were never revealed over alleged data and methodological infirmities — but this week, Bihar appeared to finally bite the bullet with the announcement of a caste survey.
If implemented — and it’s not clear yet if this will be a full physical headcount — this will be the first time in independent India that any government has estimated the relative strength of any caste group. It will set a precedent for other governments to bypass rules that say census can only be conducted by the Centre and create pressure on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to decide its stance on this issue. Nevertheless, the decision is important for three reasons. One, it has the potential to realign politics in Bihar. Nitish Kumar’s announcement came after weeks of political churn with the Rashtriya Janata Dal pushing for what it sees as a chance to create a new constituency of supporters beyond Yadavs and Muslims. Of course, Mr Kumar is a veteran of this game, having sculpted a base of smaller backward castes and creating a new Extremely Backward Class group, and any confrontation will pit him against his old foe, Lalu Prasad, in possibly their last political face-off. Two, it represents the first serious challenge to the BJP’s caste-based outreach model — the rainbow Hindu coalition of upper caste, backwards and Dalits — which has yielded the party rich electoral dividends. The party backed the exercise in Bihar, but can it afford to alienate upper castes, who are unlikely to back such a move, nationally? The party will have to make renewed efforts to ensure that friction between Other Backward Classes and upper castes, its twin core, is sufficiently managed.
Three, any form of concrete numbers is bound to have an impact on social relations beyond Bihar. It has the potential to create a new moment of caste churn, one that India hasn’t witnessed in decades. Apart from the exercise itself likely opening a Pandora’s Box, organising a caste count is tough. There are perils arising from enumerators with preconceived notions about caste, there is the challenge of ensuring diversity of officials, and there is the danger of the exercise itself cementing identities. The Bihar government and all political parties will have to deliberate carefully on every step from this point on.