A dramatic reversal of AAP’s fortune in 100 days
AAP lost its only Lok Sabha seat to SAD (A) by a narrow margin of 5,822 votes
CHANDIGARH: The stunning win of Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) chief Simranjit Singh Mann in the Sangrur Lok Sabha byelection is a humiliating blow for the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab.
The defeat in the only Lok Sabha seat held by the AAP, though by a narrow margin of 5,822 votes in a neck-and-neck fight, came just three-and-a-half months after it swept the state with 92 of the 117 assembly seats. It is also a setback for chief minister Bhagwant Mann himself. He had won the seat twice in a row in 2014 and 2019 general elections, winning by more than 100,000 votes on both occasions and then led the party to an emphatic triumph in the state elections.
The party had notched impressive wins in all nine assembly segments falling in this parliamentary constituency, getting 53% of the 12-lakh odd votes polled. The victory margins ranged from 21,686 votes in Malerkotla to 75,277 votes in Sunam, the highest in the state. Bhagwant Mann inducted two of them, Harpal Singh Cheema (Dirba) and Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer (Barnala), in his cabinet. He also picked his protégé Gurmail Singh, sarpanch of Gharachon village, as the party candidate from the seat when he resigned from the Lok Sabha on getting elected to the state assembly and becoming the chief minister.
Mann’s fortress breached
As the party counted on his charisma and sway to score a hattrick, the chief minister campaigned in the area for four days on the trot, including a roadshow with AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal. But none of it worked. The dramatic reversal in fortune in the CM’s fortress in such a short period has left the party leaders stunned. Known for their rebellious streak, the voters of Sangrur, a breeding ground for leftist and Dalit movements, have shown their proclivity for springing surprises time and again. The incumbent CM was a beneficiary in the past and rode the tide of anger against the traditional parties in the region, but his party was at the receiving end this time.
Factors at play
Ashutosh Kumar, professor of political science at Panjab University, Chandigarh, termed the result as “unusual” as the ruling parties traditionally do not lose their strongholds after the kind of massive win that the AAP had scored in Punjab not very long ago. “Probably his (Mann) playing second fiddle to the AAP’s Delhi leadership did not go down well with people. The irony is that after this, he will be more dependent on them,” he said. Another reason being cited is the “sudden inaccessibility” of the legislators and other leaders, who were within reach till the time of elections, to party workers and constituents.
Shadow of Moose Wala’s killing
The brutal killing of singer-politician Shubhdeep Singh, popularly known as Sidhu Moose Wala, by armed assailants in Mansa on May 29 also appears to have cast a shadow on the ruling party’s electoral prospects. The singer’s fans blamed the government for curtailing his security. It also came under heavy fire from the opposition parties over the “deteriorating law and order” situation, particularly the gangster-related crimes, after the Mansa incident. The outrage has worked to Simranjit Mann’s advantage as he saw a spike in support from youth and in rural pockets, another political observer said, quoting anecdotal evidence. The SAD (A) leader was also quick to target the state government for being allegedly “controlled” by party leadership from Delhi. The electoral loss will not only embolden the opposition parties, but also pile pressure on the chief minister to look at what went wrong.
While most party leaders, including local MLAs, were either incommunicado or at a loss for words after the poll picture became clear, AAP’s state chief spokesperson Malwinder Singh Kang, while accepting the people’s mandate, said the party would do a comprehensive review of the bypoll result to ascertain the reasons.