Uddhav is on a sticky wicket, but not out yet

It’s been a week since simmering discontent in the Shiv Sena exploded with a group of lawmakers rebelling against Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray and taking off to Surat, then Guwahati, pushing the state’s ruling Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition to the brink. In the last seven days, even as an increasingly desperate Sena has issued threats to the rebels who are led by urban development minister Eknath Shinde, the dissidents have only grown in strength. As of Sunday, they number 38 of the Sena’s 55 legislators, above the two-thirds mark mandated by the anti-defection law to legally break away without attracting disqualification.

The Sena runs on the power of its charismatic founder, Balasaheb Thackeray, and the regimented structure of its organisation that enforces its militant and populist diktats on the ground. The rebels have made some moves towards claiming that they’re the inheritors of Bal Thackeray’s legacy, but an analysis by this newspaper of the top office bearers in the party indicates that this claim may be tough for the rebels to implement on the ground. Under Uddhav Thackeray, the top rung of the party comprises 12 netas (leaders), then 32 upnetas (deputy leaders), then five secretaries, 33 sampark pramukhs (communication chiefs) and 101 zila pramukhs (district chiefs) and up-pramukhs (district deputy chiefs). At the neta level, other than Mr Shinde, no member has backed the rebels (and nine have supported Mr Thackeray). At the deputy leader level, only four back the rebels. All five secretaries are with Mr Thackeray and so are an overwhelming majority of the sampark pramukh and district leadership. Not only does this indicate that despite facing the biggest crisis of his career, Mr Thackeray continues to have reasonable control of the party machinery, but it also hints at why the rebels continue to camp on the banks of the Brahmaputra, and not the Arabian Sea.