Stakes high for all parties in this Dalit stronghold
JALANDHAR : The Jalandhar parliamentary constituency in the Dalit heartland of the Doaba region, which has traditionally been the Congress citadel, is set for a fierce four-cornered contest this time.
The byelection, to be held on May 10, was necessitated after sitting Congress MP Santokh Chaudhary died due to a heart attack while taking part in the Punjab leg of the Bharat Jodo Yatra of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on January 14.
The Congress has fielded Chaudhary’s wife Karamjit Kaur as its candidate for the bypoll and the ruling AAP has given the ticket to Congress turncoat and former MLA Sushil Rinku after he joined the party earlier this month. While the Chaudhary family is close to Dera Sachkhand, a sect of the Ravidassia community, which draws its strength from the sheer number of Dalit followers, a significant vote bank in this constituency, the AAP has picked Rinku, who belongs to the Ravidassia sect.
The Shiromani Akali Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party (SAD-BSP) combine has fielded Sukhwinder Kumar Sukhi, while the BJP, which is contesting its first Lok Sabha election independently after the SAD snapped ties with it, has given the ticket to Akali turncoat and former MLA Inder Iqbal Singh Atwal.
Dubbed as the Congress stronghold, the segment saw emergence of the AAP in the 2022 assembly polls. In the last Vidhan Sabha elections, the Congress won five out of nine segments in Jalandhar parliamentary constituency, while the AAP bagged four.
The Congress won from Jalandhar Cantonment, Jalandhar North, Adampur, Shahkot and Phillaur, while the AAP candidates emerged victorious from Jalandhar Central, Jalandhar West, Nakodar and Kartarpur assembly constituencies.
Numbers game
Dalits constitute 32% of the population in Punjab, the highest among all states. Most of the Scheduled Castes (SC) population is concentrated in Doaba, accounting for 45% of the population.
With SC vote bank on mind, political outfits are prominently mentioning and raising issues concerning the Dalits during their campaigns for the bypoll.
The issues include the alleged bungling of funds of post-matric scholarship scheme during the Congress regime, discontinuation of free ‘atta-dal’ for the poor, failure of the AAP government in meeting its promise of appointing a Dalit deputy chief minister, revoking of blue cards deleted by AAP government during scrutiny and no reservation for Dalits in recruitment of law officers.
Cong proving its mettle since 1999
Despite facing stiff competition from opponents, the Congress managed to prove its mettle by remaining undefeated in the Jalandhar Lok Sabha segment since 1999.
It was only in 1998 elections when former prime minister Inder Kumar Gujral got elected as a member of Parliament from here as a Janta Dal candidate. In 1999, Congress’ Balbir Singh won the Jalandhar Lok Sabha seat followed by Rana Gurjeet Singh in 2004, Mohinder Singh Kaypee in 2009 and Santokh Singh Chaudhary in 2014 and 2019. However, the winning margin of the Congress has been on the slide. Two-time MP Santokh Chaudhary defeated SAD’s Pawan Tinu by a margin of 70,981 votes in the 2014 polls. The margin was reduced to 19,491 in the 2019 polls when Chaudhary got 3,85,712 votes against 3,66,221 polled by SAD’s Charanjit Singh Atwal. The AAP candidate, Justice Zora Singh (retd), polled 25,467 votes, while BSP candidate Balwinder Singh got 2,04,783 votes.
Four-cornered fight
The May 10 bypoll is important for all political parties in many ways. For the ruling AAP, it is a battle of prestige as it lost Sangrur Lok Sabha election three months after coming to power in 2022. It will also help the ruling party test its one year’s performance in the state assembly.
While the Congress is hoping to continue its winning streak, the bypoll is being dubbed as the existential battle for the SAD, especially after its worst drubbing in the 2022 assembly polls where it managed to win only three seats. The challenges are daunting for the BJP, which is contesting its first independent parliamentary election after snapping ties with the SAD. In 2022 state assembly elections, the BJP contested 73 of the 117 seats and could win only two — Pathankot and Mukerian – with a vote share of just 6.6%.
The byelection will also put to test not only the political parties’ cadre, but their strengths and weaknesses too before the final showdown of the 2024 general polls.