As Vokkaliga voters veer away from JD(S), Cong fills the void
BENGALURU: For decades, the Vokkaliga community stood by the Janata Dal (Secular), almost single handedly propelling the fortunes of the party’s first family, headed by patriarch and former prime minister HD Deve Gowda. This steadfast support helped the regional party net an impressive tally of seats in the old Mysuru region and helped the JD(S) consistently punch above its weight -the reason that Gowda’s son HD Kumaraswamy became chief minister of the state twice, the first time in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party and the second in coalition with the Congress.
Yet, on Saturday, the Vokkaliga heartland sent out the first signs that it was moving away from the JD(S). The party won 11 of the 46 Vokkaliga-dominated constituencies, down from 25 in 2018. The Congress won 29, up from nine five years ago. As the JD(S) slumped to its worst showing in the state since its first election in 1999, its fragmenting support a warning sign for a party that has come to symbolise cynical power politics in the state.
Of south Karnataka’s 11 districts — Shivamogga, Chikkamagaluru, Tumakuru, Hassan, Mandya, Mysuru, Kodagu, Ramanagara, Chamarajanagar, Chikkaballapur and Kolar -- over two-thirds are Vokkaliga-dominated. The JD(S) vote share in this region dipped from 38.2% in 2018 to 28.9% this time.
According to experts, Vokkaliga votes shifted to the Congress.
“There should not be any doubt that the Congress’s gain in Old Mysuru region is because of the decline of the support for the Janata Dal (Secular). This began during the 2019 Lok Sabha election and the party continues to decline,” said political analyst Sandeep Shastri.
The trend of the JD(S) doing poorly in Vokkaliga-dominated seats continued outside the Old Mysuru region. Of the 25-odd seats outside the area where the farming community is an influential factor, the JD(S) could win only four.
This is bad news for a party that fielded 54 candidates from the Vokkaliga community, which has traditionally backed the JD(S) because of the grassroots appeal of Deve Gowda, his grassroots outreach, the JD(S)’ s focus on agrarian issues and community pride. A JD(S) leader admitted that the party’s Vokkaliga votes shifted to the Congress in large numbers and also, in relatively smaller numbers, to the BJP. “The increase of BJP vote share in Vokkaliga constituencies shows that,” the leader said, asking not to be named.
Kumaraswamy, too, on Saturday admitted to losing Vokkaliga votes and promised to look into the reasons for it and take corrective steps.
“If you go to the villages of Mandya or Ramanagara, voters were openly denouncing the JD(S). First, the JD(S) MLAs failed to do any development work and more than that there is disgruntlement against HD Kumaraswamy,” said Tippe Gowda, a former JD(S) worker from Mandya, who joined the Congress ahead of the election. According to him, Nikhil Kumaraswamy, the former CM’s son, losing by a margin of 10,715 votes from the family’s pocket borough was a clear indication of how the Gowda family had fallen out of favour.
The constituency was earlier represented by Nikhil’s mother, Anitha Kumaraswamy, who had won the 2018 by-election by a margin of 109,137 votes. “The community has sent a clear message to the family,” added the leader quoted above.
Political observer A Narayana said that Vokkaligas rejected the family-centric politics of the JD(S). “In the Lok Sabha election, most of the seats were contested by members of the Gowda family. As leaders in the party are being sidelined, there is bound to be a reaction from factions,” he said.
The party’s performance has now put a question mark on its future in a state that may be turning bipolar in its politics. “A lot of leaders who could influence Vokkaligas to contribute 2,000-3,000 votes did not work for the party this time. Some of them even joined the Congress,” said a second JD(S) leader.