In Bihar, an uneasy alliance

Even if the JD(U) does not quit the NDA, tensions will remain as the BJP wants to be the dominant partner

Will Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) part company with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) once again? Recent events do suggest that something is afoot in Bihar. Mr Kumar has skipped important political functions in Delhi. RCP Singh, the only JD(U) representative in the Union Cabinet was first denied a Rajya Sabha re-nomination and then let go from the party. JD(U)’s national president has now accused Mr Singh of being a BJP stooge who wants to weaken the JD(U). Without prejudice to whether or not the JD(U) jumps ship (once again), there is a larger message from the continuous tension in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar.

As the dominant political party in the country, the BJP is not willing to play second fiddle to any regional alliance partner in the states. This holds at the level of both ideology and balance of power within alliances. The JD(U) got a reality check on this in the 2020 Bihar elections when it was sabotaged by Chirag Paswan, who fielded candidates against the JD(U) while being a part of the NDA at the national level. Mr Paswan’s targeted rebellion made the JD(U) a junior partner of the

BJP in the NDA in Bihar, something which had never happened before. This has made

Mr Kumar’s chief ministership look like a favour from the BJP.

Mr Kumar has been trying to get even with the BJP for this treatment by trying to champion issues such as demanding a caste census (and an increase in the existing 50% cap on reservations), which can potentially antagonise the BJP’s upper caste base — the NDA in Bihar is often described as the coalition of extremes — by rallying other Mandal-based parties such as the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). By showcasing his attempts to actively forge old-style other backward classes solidarity, Mr Kumar has tried to maintain a credible threat to the BJP, which faced a bitter defeat in the 2015 assembly elections after an effective Mandal consolidation by the

JD(U) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

However, as the fate of the 2015 grand alliance tells us — Mr Kumar parted ways with the RJD citing corruption cases against Lalu Prasad and his family — a Mandal-based political formation is not likely to be very stable either. Whether or not the JD(U) deserts the BJP this time, the NDA in Bihar is unlikely to shed the acrimony and paranoia which has come to signify it.