IRAN ATTACK
retaliation for a deadly strike on its diplomatic compound in Syria last week, which the Islamic Republic blames on Israel. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly said Israel will be “punished” for the assault, though stopped short of saying what form such a counter move would take.
Late Friday, Israel reported 40 rocket launches from Lebanese territory and said some were intercepted. Israeli forces also intercepted two of Hezbollah’s explosive drones earlier in the day, the Israel Defence Forces said in a post on X.
One of the people said it’s possible that the increasingly inflammatory rhetoric between Israel, Iran, and the US could be grandstanding, but said the working assumption for Israel and allies is that an attack is imminent. Diplomatic back-channels are in overdrive, the people said.
Any Iranian attack on Israel would likely be a combination of missiles and drones, based on current capabilities outlined in a new Defence Intelligence Agency Worldwide Threat assessment released late Thursday. The regime “has a substantial inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of striking targets as far as 2,000 kilometers from its borders,” the agency said.
Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday the US and allies were expecting a major escalation of hostilities, with targeted attacks on Israeli government and military sites. The Jewish State hasn’t claimed or denied responsibility for the Damascus attack, in keeping with a decadeslong policy of ambiguity on operations in Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere.
A direct Israel-Iran conflict would significantly rachet up hostilities in the Middle East, where tensions have been rising since Israel began its war against Hamas in Gaza in October, after the Iran-backed militant group invaded the country and killed about 1,200 people. Hamas is designated a terrorist organization by the US and European Union.
Other members of the Islamic Republic’s so-called Axis of Resistance, chiefly Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Yemen-based Houthis, have stepped up their aggression in recent months.
The escalating hostilities have drawn direct intervention from senior diplomats. UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron warned Iran Thursday that an attack would escalate and drag in a wider array of actors.