Macron and the spectre of an Atmanirbhar Europe
The French President Emmanuel Macron is nothing if not cerebral. Soon after he assumed office in 2017, he made a speech at the famous Sorbonne University arguing for a “sovereign Europe”. Now, he has made another seminal speech at the same venue about his vision for Europe. The speech deserves careful scrutiny.
Macron claims that since his speech in 2017, Europe has indeed become more united and more sovereign. In defence of this argument, Macron refers to action taken during the Covid-19 pandemic, and the initial unity displayed by Europe when Russia invaded Ukraine. But he admits that other actions such as the energy transition characterised by the “Green Deal”, and what he calls “technological and industrial sovereignty”, are clearly a work in progress. Macron makes a fundamental point when he says there can be no sovereignty without borders and makes a strong pitch, therefore, for the effective implementation of laws on immigration and asylum. With European elections looming large, this stance is hardly surprising.
In a dramatic statement, Macron asserts that Europe is mortal and can die if steps are not taken to save it. To illustrate this point further, he candidly admits that Europe cannot effectively face all the risks it confronts. He then links it to the all-important transatlantic relationship by stating that the United States (US) has two priorities. America First, which he describes as entirely legitimate, and then China, on which he does not comment. But his main inference from this is that Europe is not a geopolitical priority for the US in the coming years and decades, no matter how strong the alliance and how committed the administration is to the Ukrainian conflict. And so, yes, he says, the days of Europe buying its energy and fertilisers from Russia, outsourcing to China, and relying on the US for security are over. I doubt any European leader has put the transatlantic relationship in such stark terms.
In stating the above, Macron gives reasons as to why Europe is currently not up to the task. He says the basic rules have changed to the detriment of Europe. For one thing, he notes war has returned to the heart of Europe and a nuclear power is involved. Second, he asserts that Europe does not possess an economically viable model with both the US and
China “over subsidising”. Even before the Inflation Reduction Act, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the US had grown by 60% between 1993 and 2022. Europe grew by a mere 30%.
The interesting point that Macron makes is that both the US and China have stopped respecting the fundamental rules of international trade. Macron says this situation is completely untenable for Europe which has the “most onerous social model in the world”. Finally, Macron also claims with some justification that European values of democracy and human rights are under attack worldwide because of the digital revolution and young Europeans are consuming narratives produced elsewhere in the world.
Macron says that Europe has hitherto naively delegated everything strategic: Energy to Russia, security — not France, but several of its partners — to the US, and equally critical perspectives to China. Macron’s prescription is that Europe must take them back.
Macron then proceeds to explain how this might be done. First and foremost, he says, there must be a credible European defence. He stands by what he controversially said in February about possibly putting troops on the ground in Ukraine, describing it as a policy of “strategic ambiguity”. Macron also wishes to press ahead with implementing the “strategic compass” and, in particular, to set up a rapid reaction force to be able to deploy up to 5,000 military personnel in hostile environments by 2025. Macron follows up on this by saying that there must be a strong European defence industry. In addition, he advocates a serious industrious policy which he calls “Made in Europe” in strategic sectors of economy and technology. But all this is in vain if Europe does not control its borders, according to Macron. Significantly, Macron seeks a “new trade policy” for Europe based on reciprocity, preferences for Europe and high labour and environmental standards.
The above vision of an “aatmanirbhar” Europe has the following strategic implications for India. First, a Europe that is strong and self-reliant is in India’s abiding strategic interest. Macron is brutally honest when he says that Europe cannot – and must not – be a vassal of the US. Here, he is “Trump-proofing” the European Union (EU) to an extent. Second, an“aatmanirbhar Europe” will serve as an independent pole in a multipolar world, which again is in India’s interest. Third, it is important to realise that this vision may prove problematic for the early conclusion of a free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the EU.
Finally, in areas like technology, innovation and critical minerals, India must offer itself as a serious partner to France and the EU so that our own “strategic autonomy” is enhanced. China finds mention in Macron’s speech on more than one occasion. However, it remains to be seen how the EU eventually deals with China. The German Chancellor’s recent visit to Beijing and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s impending visit to Paris may offer clues about the EU’s China policy, which does not necessarily mirror that of its transatlantic partner. This too should matter to India.