Widen the pipeline to a changing West Asia
India’s West Asia policy is entering interesting times. External affairs minister Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Tehran days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia is an indication of India’s seriousness about the region. New Delhi has recently moved ahead with a number of initiatives with Iran. It finalised the draft Chabahar Agreement, known as the International Transport and Transit Corridor Agreement with Afghanistan and Iran, alongside a preliminary agreement to develop the Farzad B gas field, which was agreed upon during the visit by minister for state for petroleum and natural resources Dharmendra Pradhan. These projects were languishing for over a decade much to Tehran’s consternation.
Pradhan offered to invest up to $20 billion in oil, petrochemicals and fertiliser projects in joint ventures if Tehran provided land and gas at concessional rates. He expressed an interest in setting up an LNG plant and a gas cracker unit at Chabahar. The lifting of western sanctions against Iran has expanded the scope of Indo-Iranian engagement. Iran’s crude oil exports to India are now three times higher compared to last year. New Delhi signed an air services agreement with Iran enhancing the number of flights between the two nations. The two sides plan to increase bilateral trade from $15 billion to $30 billion. Plans are afoot for greater maritime cooperation; Iran has already joined the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, a forum for the navies of the littoral states.
The Modi government invested $85.21 million last year to develop the Chabahar port, allowing India to circumvent Pakistan and open a route to landlocked Afghanistan. The port, located 72km west of Pakistan’s Gwadar port, holds immense strategic significance for India. New Delhi and Tehran both view Chabahar as critical for developing connectivity with Kabul and as a geopolitical lever vis-à-vis Pakistan. This is high-priority for the Modi government.
As a Shia-Sunni divide fractures West Asia and US outreach to Iran begins to reshape the region’s strategic environment, Indian diplomacy will be forced to navigate these tricky waters. Today, the Obama Administration is trying to reduce its equities in the region. Enter China in an attempt to shape a new regional order. Chinese President XI Jinping’s visit to Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia this year was aimed at gaining greater political salience in West Asia. But as the balance of power in the region unravels, new equations are emerging and older paradigms are no longer sufficient to engage the region.
Modi’s high-profile visits to the UAE and Saudi Arabia were aimed at isolating Pakistan and enhancing New Delhi’s strategic space in the region. The government should now push for a substantive reorientation of ties with Iran. A thaw in US-Iran relations, heralded by the new nuclear understanding between the two, should alleviate some of Indian concerns, allowing it to push forth with a more purposeful regional engagement.