Once wary of its motives, how Prachanda came to trust Delhi in 6 months
In January this year, Nepal’s Maoist supremo, Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ told an Indian official he had got evidence that there was a highlevel Indian conspiracy to ‘eliminate’ him.
The Indian diplomat was aghast, told Prachanda this was ‘absurd’; that he was completely wrong; that someone had misled him; and India could never contemplate such a thing. Prachanda insisted someone from his party had accessed Indian intelligence documents. Word eventually reached NSA Ajit Doval. The NSA was taken aback, and is learnt to have laughed it off.
In six months, from deep suspicion, Prachanda came around to trusting India as he decided to withdraw support from the KP Oli government.
As the Maoist leader prepares to take over as Nepal’s next Prime Minister, he has asked India for support. Hindustan Times (HT) spoke to eight political and diplomatic sources - both Nepali and Indian - who traced the trajectory of the relationship.
THE BREAK WITH OLI
After the earthquake last year, Prachanda and Oli shed their rivalry to agree on a constitution. This drew a backlash in the Tarai.
But in the past six months, Maoists began rethinking. Barshaman Pun ‘Ananta’, former finance minister and one of Prachanda’s key aides, told HT, “Oli was against federalism and inclusion. We fought the war to restructure the state on progressive lines. We disagreed ideologically.” There was also competition for space between the two left leaders.
Another key issue was war crimes. Ananta, also a former Maoist army commander, told Hindustan Times, “All cases of the time should be transferred to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission from the existing courts.
If there are serious crimes, we are willing to face prosecution.” And then there was ambition. The Nepali Congress tempted Prachanda with the offer that he could become the Prime Minister.
INDIA RAPPROCHEMENT
But the key trigger, according to Maoist leaders, was a realisation that they needed better ties with India. In May, Prachanda had told HT, “This peace process rested on a partnership with Nepali Congress and good faith of Government of India. That is our natural alliance and I will return to it.”
Prachanda and Indian officials began engaging deeply. A key intermediary between them was NC MP Amresh Singh.
Singh told HT, “Prachanda told me India had rewarded him four times - by supporting the peace deal, his appointment as PM in 2008, republicanism, and integration of Maoist combatants. But he said it also punished him four times - by supporting his ouster in 2009, encouraging his rival Baburam Bhattarai as Prime Minister, downsizing the Maoists during the 2013 elections and splitting the party.”
Singh claimed that now, Prachanda felt, he and India were even and ‘could begin afresh’.
In May, he withdrew support only to retract. In recent discussions, Prachanda asked Indian officials for support for his government, development projects, resolving the Madhes issue, and a ‘long term partnership.” Officials told him that he would have unstinted Indian support.
A congratulatory message has already been drafted and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to invite him to India as soon as he is elected next week.
When an interlocutor congratulated Prachanda and told him this was a ‘golden opportunity’, the Maoist leader told him this is also his ‘last opportunity’.
How this stint plays out will depend as much on Prachanda’s internal governance as the equation with Delhi.