Will data leak take the sting out of Scorpene? Experts are divided

IN A SPOT Some say it’s too early to jump to conclusions, others believe that incident will help submarine hunters refine search

NEW DELHI: Indian and international experts were divided on how damaging the leak of sensitive data on the Scorpene submarine could prove and whether it could have compromised the platform.

Strategic affairs expert Commodore (retired) C Uday Bhaskar said if it is confirmed the data relates to the Indian vessel, then the details put out might compromise the submarine’s credibility. “The DNA of a submarine is about not being detected. If the adversary has all that data, it affects the detectability index of the boat,” said Bhaskar, who heads the Society for Policy Studies.

Gabriel Dominguez, Asia-Pacific editor at the IHS Jane’s defence weekly, said, “The risk is even higher if the data has been distributed widely, has reached potential adversaries and regional rivals or is held by individuals or organisations or both that increase the risk of further leaks or hacks.”

He said there could also be implications for the operational effectiveness of the Scorpene fleet and for India acquiring additional Scorpene-class vessels at a time when the Indian Navy’s underwater capabilities are a source of concern. However, admiral (retired) Arun Prakash, who was the navy chief when the Scorpene deal was inked, said, “One can’t really say how much damage has been caused without analysing.”

Prakash said since the documents were categorised only as “restricted,” it was an indication the leaked data was not very sensitive. “If the documents were that sensitive, they would have been marked secret or top secret.”

If found guilty, French shipbuilder DCNS would have violated a critical non-disclosure clause in the $3.5-billion contract with India.

Peter Roberts of the Royal United Services Institute in London said the most serious implications from the leak were the “frequency signature details” of the Scorpene class. “The major risk…is from the exposure of data related to propeller and radiated noise – as a result, Indian submarines will be more vulnerable after the data breach,” he said.

Such leaks will “allow submarine hunters to refine their searches rather than just searching large swathes of water”, he said.

Roberts said DCNS will have to make “some reassurances to the Indian government, and possibly undertake some mitigation work”. “The impact on DCNS is most likely to be highest with the Australian government, who recently (awarded) a large contract to the French shipbuilder, will want reassurance that their data will be protected from prying Chinese eyes,” he said.

Alyssa Ayres, a former US state department official who oversaw relations with India and is now a South Asia expert with the Council on Foreign Relations, described the leak as “terrible news, no question”. “But I think further details are required not only on the leaked info (does this reveal all about the sub?)…as well as on how it happened (was it indeed a hacking? If so, by whom?) before it’s possible to assess how future Indian defence deals might be affected,” she said.

Roberts added the leak will act as a black mark against DCNS in future submarine bidding competitions, especially in the Asia-Pacific region where over 70 submarines will be ordered in the next decade.