BJP surges in last stretch of polls but rivals close behind
Upper caste support helps saffron party edge past others but the SPCong alliance fights back by fielding more candidates from community
SULTANPUR/BAHRAICH/GONDA/LUCKNOW: Rama Shankar Tiwari is chewing paan in the Kanhaipur kasba of Lambuha assembly constituency in Sultanpur.
He does not hesitate to offer an opinion about the elections, as Sultanpur prepares to vote on Monday. “There is no alternative to Modiji. The country is secure, we are all getting food, he has sent cylinders to villages, what else do we want?”
Hundreds of kilometres away, in the Khatena bazaar of Bahraich district, Mahesh Kumar Dubey runs a small electronics shop.
“Modiji is committed to equality. He treats all of us alike. And look at Akhilesh — he abused such an international neta like Modiji and called him gadhe. Is this the way to talk?”
If the Uttar Pradesh polls were a completely seat-by-seat election driven by local arithmetic so far, they are now turning into a larger election driven by the Modi factor. Upper castes — particularly Brahmins — are playing a key role in constructing the Modi ‘hawa’.
The Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance acknowledges the shift in dynamics, has a counterstrategy for the next three phases, and believes its advantage in the first two phases will still make it the single largest formation.
THE SURGE
The fact that upper castes would be BJP’s core constituency in this election was well known.
But as we have moved eastwards, and as the election has progressed, they have become far more vocal in articulating this support.
This is important because Brahmins in particular wield influence disproportionate to their numbers. Besides them, BJP also has the support of a multitude of non-Yadav OBC groups.
The BJP’s own calculation - a top strategist says - is that 83 % upper castes are voting for the party. A Brahmin journalist in Allahabad explains the surge. “The natural preference of the Brahmin voter is BJP. It is only when the BJP does not have a winning combination that they look elsewhere. In this election, BJP is in the race, and so Brahmins are consolidating.”
ACCEPTING THE SHIFT
Top SP-Congress alliance strategists acknowledge there is indeed an increase in support.
But their figures are different. A top strategist closely involved in the alliance campaign says, “The BJP had the support of about 65% upper castes on February 11.
This shot up to about 73% by February 25. The BJP has also increased its support among non Yadav OBCs by a couple of percentage points — from 56 to 58% or so.” But this, the alliance believes, is manageable.
THE COUNTER
For one, in the next three phases, the alliance is putting up 45 upper caste candidates in 141 seats.
“33 of these candidates are from the SP, 12 candidates are from the Congress. Add another 5 Bania candidates - 4 from SP, one from Congress. So over one third of our candidates in the next three phases are upper caste. This cohort will play a major role in stopping the upper caste consolidation behind BJP,” says the strategist.
Second, the alliance has deployed 300 non Yadav OBC leaders of the SP and Congress in Purvanchal, for door to door campaigning in their caste pockets. “We know a dominant share is with them, we have to ensure it does not increase.”
THE EARLY EDGE
But even if the BJP does very well in the next three phases, alliance strategists claim it will still not be enough for them to make up for their losses in the initial phases.
For one, they say that Muslims and Yadavs have consolidated - and this itself means that the alliance has close to 110 seats. “They live in concentrated areas. Don’t underestimate this formidable combination.”
But their other reason for confidence is the belief that they have a cushion, while the BJP does not.
“They did very poorly in the first phase because of Jats, and in the second phase where polarisation benefited us in Muslim-concentrated areas.”
As the minds behind the campaign grapple with the maths in Lucknow, the ground is churning - ready for the final lap of UP elections.