India must push for more inclusion and stability
During the Nepal president’s visit, New Delhi could convey the dangers of radicalisation and ultranationalism
A little less than a year ago, Nepal’s President Bidya Bhandari’s state visit to New Delhi was cancelled abruptly by her government – then led by PM KP Oli. Oli had decided to stoke a strong sense of resentment against India to build his hardline nationalist credentials.
It speaks of the progress in ties over the past year that Bhandari is currently in New Delhi, as a state guest in Rashtrapati Bhawan. The turning point was the election of Prachanda as the PM. The Maoist leader committed himself to a ‘balanced foreign policy’, which meant re-steering the country back to its ‘special relationship’ with India from Oli’s push towards China.
India must use Bhandari’s visit to go beyond the formalities and discreetly discuss the difficult political situation back in her country. Nepal is once again headed towards a political crisis. Its roots lie in the contested constitution, which was promulgated in September 2015. This constitution eroded political representation, diluted affirmative action, reframed citizenship provisions, and gerrymandered federal provinces in a way which hurt the interests of the Madhesi people in Nepal’s southern plains. They waged a movement for six months, disrupting the border supplies with tacit Indian support. Kath- mandu was forced to amend the constitution - but this only partially met their demands.
Prachanda and the Nepali Congress came to power with the explicit promise that they would accommodate Madhesi forces with a constitutional amendment. To be fair, the government has tabled an amendment. But this has not been passed. Instead, it has gone ahead with declaring local elections for May 14. Madhesis argue that since they do not own this constitution, they cannot participate in elections held under its framework. On Sunday, they announced a fresh movement.
Here is where India comes in. Delhi has always known that an inclusive Nepal is essential for a stable and friendly Nepal. If the Madhesis are not accommodated, radicalisation would only grow, and instability could spill over across the border. Delhi has been cautious over the past few months, fearing its well meaning advice could be used by Oli and his ilk to deepen ultra-nationalism. The dilemma is understandable. But not doing anything is not an option. If elections are held in all parts but Tarai, it will reinforce the region’s sense of separateness and alienate them even further. If it is rammed through with force, it will be seen as illegitimate. India, sooner or later, will have to take a stand.
Bhandari could be an important interlocutor because as head of state, she can counsel parties to be more accommodative. She is also close to Oli, who has been most obstructionist. India must remind the Nepali political elite of the consequences of closing the doors of the constitution on Madhesis.