Rouhani’s win may not change ground realities

India-Iran trade ties will continue to suffer thanks to sanctions imposed by the US

The landslide victory of Iranian president Hassan Rouhani in his re-election bid shows that the majority of Iranians continue to support Tehran’s attempts to engage with the West and end economic isolation. However, Mr Rouhani’s return to power has coincided with a speech by US president Donald Trump accusing Iran of spreading “destruction and chaos”, “fuelling sectarian fires” and being a source of regional instability. This bodes poorly for the future of Iran’s relations with the US and will make it harder for the Gulf to find a political balance between its Sunnis and Shias.

Sanctions were helpful in bringing Tehran to accept the nuclear deal with the West. But sanctions will have the opposite effect on Iran when it comes to its involvement in Syria and Yemen. A policy of engagement makes more sense as Tehran sees its interests there in geopolitical terms. While Iran is now free of international sanctions, those imposed by the US are a major hindrance to India and others that wish to trade and invest in Iran. The Trump administration has so far not taken any steps to walk away from the nuclear deal, but by throwing in its lot so strongly with Saudi Arabia and Israel it has weakened the US’ ability to act as a go-between and ensure regional stability – which is what a strategically-minded superpower would want to be.

Iran is not an easy customer. Its record of making threats against Israel, continuing anti-American rhetoric and earlier terror attacks against US targets means it has few friends in Washington. Even India struggles to win friends and influence people in Iran because in the latter are multiple centres of power. But the re-election of Mr Rouhani should be seen as evidence that a large part of that country still hopes to be accepted as a normal member of the global community and, therefore, engaging Iran still remain a viable long-term strategy.