Raids weaken national oppn, can change Bihar’s landscape
The CBI raids on Lalu Prasad on Friday morning will weaken the already crippled national opposition further; it can also potentially alter political realignments in Bihar. First, the background. Despite political success in the 2015 elections, Prasad’s past has come back to haunt him. With the SC wanting other fodder scam cases expedited, Prasad is suddenly confronted with a maze of cases. Friday’s raids have two broad political implications. The first is on the national stage.
Prasad carries more weight than his numbers dictate in the opposition due to his experience, aggression, a loyal Muslim base, and uncompromising stance against BJP. On August 27, Prasad is organising a mega opposition rally to showcase unity in Patna. He will remain an important figure in opposition. But each charge only erodes his political capital, his ability to take a more proactive role, and gives ammunition to BJP to portray the opposition as a conglomeration of corrupt parties.
The second, more tangible, implication is for Bihar politics.
Nitish Kumar, like his old rival and now potential friend Narendra Modi, is image-conscious. Kumar has also, over the past two years, built up more than a functional relationship with Centre and BJP. In politics, signals and messaging matter. And by supporting demonetisation, by deciding to vote for Ram Nath Kovind, Kumar told BJP that he is available. Why is he doing this?
There are three explanations. The first is this increases his bargaining position with Prasad in government—confronted with the prospect that Kumar could switch to BJP anytime, Prasad has to broadly fall in line and let the CM remain the boss. The second is that Kumar sees that given the political landscape, forging opposition unity and being able to put up a contest against Modi in 2019 is looking difficult. His ambitions of being the PM candidate of such an opposition alliance too are not certain to be realised. If this is the case, why not keep the option of engaging and even collaborating with Modi? And the third explanation is that Kumar is aware that Prasad’s RJD is the bigger party — and thus Prasad can at any stage, most probably in 2020, stake claim for leadership of the alliance for his son.
What the CBI raids do is give Kumar more room. If he decides to keep the alliance intact, he becomes even more powerful within Bihar. If Kumar decides that these raids is a good moment to break away, BJP will, in all likelihood, provide him a cushion. This will, in turn, leave Prasad bereft of options, for he would then be battling both a hostile central government and a hostile state government.
The raids thus not only leave Prasad and his family more vulnerable, but indicate a political churning underway.