The battle for one Rajya Sabha seat in Gujarat
By putting Ahmed Patel, who was once among the most powerful in India, in a spot, Amit Shah has won this round
Rarely has a single Rajya Sabha seat been so fiercely contested. And rarely does such a contest demonstrate so much about Indian politics. Ahmed Patel’s struggle for political survival in the face of the BJP onslaught reveals the fragility of power; the ruthless urges of the ruling dispensation; the staggering decay of opposition; and the state of our institutions.
Why is the BJP giving Patel a run for his money now? There are four explanations.
The first goes back to the way Narendra Modi and Amit Shah do politics. Every election matters, and the party’s sole focus is acquiring power, wining as Shah memorably put it everything ‘from Parliament to Panchayat’. In the old days, there was a nudge nudge wink wink understanding between top leaders of parties. All those elite compacts are dead under Modi-Shah.
The second explanation is Shah’s personal anger at what he perceives was Patel’s role in framing charges against him. Whether Shah was actually involved in giving a green signal to extra judicial executions in Gujarat is not relevant. What is relevant is that in Shah’s head, he was hounded by Patel and the rest of the UPA regime.
Third, for the BJP, every seat in the Rajya Sabha matters. The only real obstacle to BJP’s move from dominance to hegemony is the fact that it does not enjoy a majority in the upper house. The UP win will improve its numbers; the Bihar acquisition will strengthen it; the elevation M Venkaiah Naidu as Vice President and thus chair of RS will help. And the third seat from Gujarat will be useful too.
And finally, remember Gujarat is headed for elections. Instead of Congress leveraging anti incumbency, look at what’s happening. Shankersinh Vaghela has already quit. MLAs have resigned. Others have had to run off to Karnataka. The party’s most powerful export to Delhi in recent times, Patel, is struggling. A loss would have a debilitating impact on morale, and send a signal to voters that Congress is not a serious party.
And it is to achieve these objectives that the BJP has unleashed all its power - and institutions under its control - to ensure the defeat of Patel. It is difficult to believe that the I-T raids on the Karnataka minister hosting the Gujarat MLAs are a coincidence. The BJP can say Congress misused institutions too. This is true. But the BJP has now sought to replicate the same practices and abuse power. Irrespective of the final outcome, the victor is clear.
By putting a man who was once among the most powerful in India in a spot, by revealing his hunger yet again, by fracturing the Congress and exposing its vulnerabilities, and by sending a signal to the Gujarat electorate that there is only one party in the game, Amit Shah has already won this round.