Will Tillerson’s Myanmar visit make any difference?
On top of the list will be the ongoing Rohingya crisis; followed by talks on democracy and North Korea
As part of his six-nation trip to Asia, US secretary of state Rex Tillerson will visit Myanmar on November 15. The focus of his meetings with senior leaders will be on issues concerning the Rohingya crisis. Two other issues expected to be addressed are: Myanmar’s democratisation process and that Myanmar’s leadership does not have ties with North Korea.
Tillerson’s visit comes at a time when the Trump administration is considering declaring a crackdown on Rohingya Muslims as ‘ethnic cleansing’. The crackdown has been labelled “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing” by the chief of the UN high commissioner for human rights, Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein.
The Trump administration is under pressure from the US Congress for the re-imposition of sanctions against the Myanmar military. If implemented, it would include travel curbs on military officials and prevent US from supplying assistance to the military.
The second issue of Tillerson’s visit is to urge the Myanmar leadership, civilian as well as military, to push forward the country’s democratisation process. Myanmar’s democratic transition today is incomplete and remains in the stage of illiberal democracy.
Tillerson is expected to offer both carrots and sticks during his visit. While he will say that the US is ready to extend help in addressing the Rohingya crisis as well as in the democratisation process, he is likely to stress on the possibility of the re-imposition of sanctions. This could trigger tensions between the military and civilian government.
The third issue is to ensure that Myanmar, especially the military leadership, does not maintain links with North Korea. Since 2011, Naypyidew has assured Washington that it has no military ties with Pyongyang. This has become a crucial issue now because of the tension between Washington and Pyongyang.
To prevent the US-Myanmar ties from deteriorating, Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s foreign minister, will try to explain and convince the Trump administration about the challenges her government faces. It remains to be seen if Washington will listen to Suu Kyi. Meanwhile, it is also important to understand her limitations under the hybrid political regime. It is unlikely that Suu Kyi will take actions that could potentially offend the military leadership and the sentiments of the majority population who consider Rohingyas as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.
It is important to understand that Suu Kyi is no longer a democratic icon she used to be. She is now a pragmatic politician who wants to remain in the foreseeable future. Nehginpao Kipgen is executive director, Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, and author of Democratization of Myanmar The views expressed are personal