An India-China battle at ballot box
NEWDELHI: Nepal votes in the first round of a two-phase election on Sunday.The outcome will not only decide the internal balance of power, but will also determine whether India continues to wield decisive influence, or whether Nepal’s shift northward towards China deepens.
The primary battle is between the Nepali Congress (NC) led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and a new left alliance of the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) led by K P Oli and Maoists led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Pra- chanda’.
The internal dynamics
This is the first election after Nepal promulgated a federal democratic republican constitution in 2015. Polling is taking place for both national parliament and provincial legislatures in seven newly created states.
The constitution led to protests by Madhesis of the southern plains, bordering India. Despite their reservations, the Madhesis are participating in the election.
Whoever wins at the national level and in most provinces will have an opportunity to shape the new state institutions.
Geopolitical contest
The election is being interpreted as an almost direct faceoff between India and China at the ballot box.
After the constitution, despite Indian opposition, Oli formed a government with Prachanda. This government stoked ultra nationalism - alleging that Madhesi protests at the border were actually an India-imposed blockade, and deepened ties with China.
Eventually, India persuaded Prachanda to withdraw support to Oli and stitch an alliance with the Nepali Congress. Prachanda did so, defying Chinese advice to stay on with Oli for they desired a ‘united left front’.
But a few months ago, Prachanda stitched an electoral alliance with Oli’s UML. China encouraged the two parties to come together and is supporting the ‘communist alliance’.
India enhanced its support for the ‘democratic alliance’ of NC, right wing parties, and the Madhesi forces.
A recent government decision to cancel a hydropower project to a Chinese firm is being seen as a signal by India-backed NC to China, even as Oli has promised he will revive it.
Two caveats are necessary. Irrespective of who wins, the government in Kathmandu will have to do business with both countries to their south and north. And second, the outcome could well be fragmented and alignments may change post elections.
But what is clear is that Delhi and Beijing have favourites in Nepal - and they happen to be on opposite ends. The election represents yet another mini theatre of intensified big power rivalry in South Asia.