The symbol is the game changer

The RK Nagar bypoll will prove decisive for AIADMK’s future

Never before have the fortunes of a ruling party in Tamil Nadu, perhaps even in all of India, gone through the kind of roller coaster that those of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) have in the past year. Typically, it’s the Opposition that puts the government on the mat, but in the AIADMK’s case, its intra-party wars have been playing out on an endless loop. This might be over soon.

On December 5 last year, AIADMK leader and Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa died and soon the party split into two factions. Not long after, VK Sasikala, who aspired to replace Jayalalithaa, was jailed on corruption charges , and the bypoll to the RK Nagar assembly seat, vacant upon Jayalalithaa’s demise, was suspended after reports of violations of the electoral code. However, what worsened the crisis within the party was the Election Commission of India’s decision to freeze the ‘two leaves’ party symbol over which rival factions claimed propriety rights.

The symbol is important because party founder and former chief minister, MG Ramachandran, and Jayalalithaa did little to build a robust party with a strong leadership in the second rung. Apart from these two leaders, loyalists identify with little other than the ‘two leaves’. This is why the ECI’s decision, last week, to allot the ‘two leaves’ to the Edappadi Palaniswami-O Panneerselvam ruling combine because it “enjoys support of majority members in the legislative and organisational wings” is significant.

The symbol in many ways certifies the ruling faction as the ‘original’. The Sasikala faction, which, by default, loses its credibility, has been facing one setback after another — the arrest of TTV Dinakaran, the suspension of 18 MLAs and the recent I-T raids. Losing the symbol, however, is the most severe blow so far.

The next test for both the factions will be the bypoll on December 21. Can the EPS-OPS combine win with the symbol? Is public mood in favour of the Sasikala faction, which is perceived to be at the receiving end of the government, allegedly backed by the BJP? Will the contest be easy for the DMK? The bypoll will be a litmus test, based on which the future course of the party, maybe the state, will be decided. For now, its advantage EPS-OPS.