After Patidars, some more voices raise quota demand
The fear of sharing reservation benefits with affluent Patidars has Gujarat’s socially and economically backwards asking: should they limit the scope for our children?
RAJKOT/JAMNAGAR/DWARKA : Politics, like Physics, it seems, follows Isaac Newton’s third law: every action has an equal and opposite reaction.
As campaigning for the assembly polls in Gujarat hurtles towards the climax, the ruling BJP has reoriented its campaign to aggressively woo the backward communities.
And this has been fuelled by the growing demand for ‘anamat’ – reservation in local parlance – for the influential Patidars, who form an estimated 12% of the state’s population. They also dominate Gujarat businesses and hold considerable influence in 60-odd assembly constituencies.
With the Congress backing the Patidar demand, the backward communities have become apprehensive – the fear of sharing reservation benefits with the affluent community is palpable among the socially and economically backwards of Gujarat.
In Uttar Pradesh earlier this year, a consolidation of the backward communities did wonders for the BJP – the country’s most populous state that it won with a three-fourth majority.
In Gujarat – where voting will be held on December 9 and 14 – the backwards, naturally, seems to be holding the key to government formation this time and the BJP does not mind flaunting its love for them.
It was, however, not always like this. The Patidars were faithful to the BJP for two decades, irrespective of rebellion by community veterans such as Keshubhai Patel and others.
Between 2002 and 2012, the BJP’s vote share ranged between 47.9% and 49.8% and it happened with near-total support from Patidars, besides other communities.
THE FEAR
Patidars are a landholding, rich community who remained engaged in business activities, as OBCs reaped benefits of quota in government jobs and education.
Hardik Patel’s agitation sparked off optimism among the community about their younger generation, too, getting access to higher education and government jobs. But two years since the agitation peaked, the Patidars are getting restless.
“We have to teach the BJP a lesson this time” is a common refrain among a group of seven 60-plus Patidars of Jabalpur village in Tankara assembly constituency of Morbi district.
“Business has its insecurity. Is it a crime to ask for better education and employment prospects?” one of them says after spitting a mouthful of ‘gutkha’ on an electricity pole.
The bruises from the police action on violent Patitar activists during the 2015 agitation are still fresh. The agony of watching young boys landing behind bars hurts them even today.
About 100km away, on the outskirts of Jamnagar, the sentiment is different.
“Aren’t they (Patidars) well off? They have business, land, everything. Why should they limit the scope for our kids? If Patidars get reservation, they will corner most of the benefits, leaving nothing for our sons and daughters,” says Devji Bhai of Mokhana village in Jamnagar Rural assembly constituency.
He is an Ahir — or a Yadav equivalent of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The community has sizeable presence in Jamnagar and Dwarka, the fabled city of Lord Krishna. The sentiment reverberates in several parts of this region -- louder at some, subtle at many.
THE ARITHMETIC
OBCs are over 40% of Gujarat population, more than three times the size of Patidars. The backwards have been almost equally divided between the BJP and the Congress in past elections. Loyalty to candidate mostly took precedence over party. This election could be different, if their fear tilts the balance in favour of the BJP even by few counts.
The electoral gains would be much more than the loss that Patidars could inflict.
“Patidars, who brought the BJP to power in 1995, grudge that influence of OBC increased at their cost under Modi,” says Kaushik Mehta, editor of Rajkotbased Gujarati daily Phulchhab.
The OBCs’ list in Gujarat includes 146 castes, including 17 from the Muslim community. The likes of Koli, a fishermen community with strong presence in south Gujarat and Suarashtra, are over 15% of the state’s population.
Saurashtra accounts for 48 assembly constituencies and 33 went to the BJP in 2012. The Congress ended up with 13 and Gujarat Parivartan Party of Patidar stalwart Keshubhai Patel got two.
The former Gujarat chief minister fading into oblivion and Hardik throwing his weight behind the Congress goes in the favour of the grand old party. The Congress had never seen such high popularity ratings among Patidars in recent times.
THE STRATEGY
At the BJP’s media centre on the SG highway on Ahmedabad, Amit Shah sits past midnight, holding meetings and calling up his lieutenants over for feedback. Instructions are immediately sent out to tighten the nuts and bolts.
He works on a two-pronged strategy to limit the damage in the BJP’s hold over Patidars and expand its popularity among the backwards. The calculation is, if the BJP can swing 3-4% of OBC votes in its favour, it will outnumber even a 5-6% dip in popularity ratings among numerically smaller Patidars. Shah feels the mission to win 150 seats can be achieved, if the strategy worked.
He has fielded more Patidar and OBC candidates this time. Hardik’s team has been divided, with some of his aides joining the BJP recently. A word of mouth campaign about emergence of the OBC under BJP is on.
“The idea is to reach out to every voter from the OBC community and convert them,” a BJP strategist told HT.