A clarion call for reverse migration to villages
India happens to be a land where politics is a precursor to many things, be it even the business environment. The Union Budget may draw accolades and criticism from the two parliamentary sides. However, we need to understand the embedded assumptions which could have prompted the finance minister for such a Budget. First of all, some positive vibes need to be understood which could create long-term benefits for the poor, for the rural people and more positively for the rural poor! The rural poor is devoid of good food, may be due to inadequacy of agriculture related operations, and hence good health eludes this entity. The blind run of the rural people to urban areas in search of jobs resulted in disaster for cities, although it has been arrested a bit now. The announcement of ‘ease of living’ concept is the first salvo which the Modi government may have fired towards the next elections and forthcoming state elections this year.
The government seems to be working on how the services could be delivered to the end consumer at tapering costs. For this, manpower need to be skilled and supported by a low cost delivery platform (like Digital India). Demonetisation too has helped the government work in this direction. Cashless economy, after initial hiccups, may actually get going. This may happen by 2024 (10 years from 2014 when the Modi government assumed office). By then, the rural infrastructure will have received a boost through road and rail projects linking the unserved areas, prompting a ‘reverse migration’ that will enable the MSME sector to grow with a rural push-up.
The blue economy (fisheries related), green economy (the minister described bamboo as green gold) and the white economy (milk related) is expected to give synergistic results that may propel the economy en route to the rural sector, making a surge in overall GDP growth rate (soon we will be fifth largest).
‘Make in India’ will further expectedly uplift the manufacturing sector, although in a country like India, our economy can never be manufacturingcentric, contrary to our neighbour China.
The pollution issues around the national capital territory of Delhi and Swachch Bharat Abhiyaan are long-term perspectives addressed by the government. Namami Gange, ODF cities, housing funds, loans to SHGs, eklavya yojana and allocations under RISE, all indicate the government has set sight to regain power. Health has been a major issue in developing economies, including India. Very cleverly Section 80D benefits have been upped across societal demography and the National Health Protection Scheme will definitely have its say during voting. It was necessary and very correctly, the launch has been timed. Nutritional support to TB patients is a welcome step.
The budget is a clear indicator that seniors should invest and juniors should spend. Disposable income has been eyed by the government and is likely to go up.
No major shift in personal taxation slabs, providing standard deduction again while getting off with few existing ones like medical reimbursement and travel/ transport allowances and enhancing the education cess is a clear indicator that provisions for good healthcare and transport will not be put on the back burner because this government is in the mood for transformation.