Met dept predicts normal monsoon for India this year

PUNE: Initial predictions released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have shown favourable monsoon conditions from Pacific and Indian Ocean, increasing the probability of a normal monsoon this year.

The predictions are part of IMD’s El Niño, southern oscillation, and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) bulletin for March. According to them, currently, La Niña conditions exist over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The latest monsoon mission climate forecasting system indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to persist for the entire forecast period.

La Niña causes the opposite effects of El Niño. El Niño events are associated with warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean, while La Niña events are associated with a sustained cooling of these same areas. Both have an impact on Indian monsoons.

Speaking about the bulletin, the head at the climate monitoring and analysis group at IMD, Pune, AK Srivastava said, “Existence of La Nina as highlighted in

CURRENTLY, LA NIÑA CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN

the bulletin would be good for monsoon. The highlights of the bulletin show that so far, some of the conditions are favourable for monsoon and hence, we can say that monsoon this year would not be bad.”

The bulletin added that neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over equatorial Indian Ocean. Also called Indian Niño, this is a phenomenon where the western Indian Ocean becomes alternatively warmer and colder than the eastern part of the ocean.

Speaking about impact of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Srivastava said a positive IOD is favourable for monsoon.

“Amplitude of IOD is very less compared to La Nina.Also IOD cannot be forecast very accurately this early. Also negative IOD affects monsoon adversely. We must understand that monsoon is governed by various factors and this is just one of the many,” said Srivastava.