PARTTIME POLITICIAN TO PM ASPIRANT
Rahul Gandhi has always had the image of being a reluctant leader. He is 47, but Chanakya has heard enough people in Delhi’s political circles still referring to him as a “boy”, although this may well have more to do with the relative age of Indian politicians in general than any disrespect for the man. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is 67, a full two decades older. In general, Indian politicians aren’t supposed to hit their stride till they are well into their 50s. Bharatiya Janata Party president Amit Shah, at 53, is considered young.
Gandhi also has the image of a part-time politician, perhaps because of his frequent (although not as frequent as his political rivals would have us believe) holidays or breaks from work. It has become important for a political leader to be 24x7x365, especially in the context of the BJP, an always-on political party which approaches every election, small and big, with similar intensity. The most energetic manifestation of this, of course, is the prime minister, who remains the BJP’s ace in the hole
That was then, though.
For several months now, starting from before the Gujarat assembly elections, Gandhi has seemed a different person. Some BJP leaders attribute this to a tendency among “liberals”, the preferred four-letter word of the Modi administration, and “liberal media” to talk up a rival to Modi ahead of the general elections in 2019. Other, more neutral political analysts, put it down to growing fatigue with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in the run-up to the polls. And, of course, a few link it to actual, real, on-the-ground change in Gandhi. Some members of the Congress believe the second theory is closer to the truth. One of Gandhi’s associates told Chankaya, “Rahul hasn’t changed; you guys have”.
But something had changed in Gandhi. His campaigns in Gujarat and Karnataka were intense. He addressed 30 rallies in Gujarat, scores of smaller meetings, and visited 12 temples; in Karnataka, he had addressed over 100 rallies and meetings till the end of campaigning on Thursday. He has spent much of the past few months (24 days across eight legs) in the state. Meanwhile, his and his party’s messaging has improved, becoming more uniform and cogent, and largely lacking in the kind of gaffes that did neither party nor man any good in the past.
And unlike in the past, the Congress seems to have learned how to use local factors to its advantage. In Gujarat, this took the form of the H-A-J partnership with Patidar leader Hardik Patel, backward classes leader Alpesh Thakor, and Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani. In Karnataka, this has taken the form of respecting the strengths of local leader, Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah. Finally, Gandhi’s party seems to have got its head around how modern-day campaigns, online and offline, are run.
On May 8, Gandhi indicated, for the first time, his willingness to be prime minister. For 10 years, between 2004 and 2014, and especially after the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance’s surprise win in 2009, which many attributed to him, Gandhi steadfastly refused to be part of the Union Cabinet.
Gandhi’s readiness to take the top job changes several dynamics. It signals the beginning of a straightforward mano-e-mano fight at the hustings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The two, to state the obvious, are very different people, and not just from the popular kaamdar vs naamdar (worker vs dynast) line the prime minister has grown very fond of in recent weeks. Modi is by far the better orator, and also has an earthy sense of humour that connects well with the audience, but Gandhi does come across as more sincere and approachable. Perhaps this is because Modi is on the campaign trail so much that at least some of his oratory looks like a stump speech.
Gandhi, unlike Modi, has no administrative experience. He hasn’t run either a state or a ministry, and it is only a few months since he started running a party. That isn’t much of a resume in terms of the work experience required to run a country and could pose a problem even with the Congress’ own allies, current and potential.
In Uttar Pradesh, which sends the most representatives to Parliament, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), look likely to fight together in the polls. BSP leader Mayawati has prime ministerial aspirations, as does another leader who is trying to build a federal front against the BJP, the Trinamool Congress’ chief and West Bengal chief minister, Mamata Banerjee. With the possible exception of the Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav, many of these leaders see themselves as peers of former Congress president and Rahul’s mother Sonia Gandhi, whose mandate now is to manage relationships with existing and future partners.
And the Congress will need partners. While it is certain that the Congress will better its 2014 tally of 44 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, it is unlikely to be in a position to have, on its own, the minimum numbers required to form a government. Indeed, even with partners, it will be a challenge to derail the BJP juggernaut. Still, stranger things have happened in politics and 2004 is still far too recent (and shocking) for anyone to have forgotten it.
If that happens, Gandhi may be willing; he may even, giving him the benefit of the doubt, be able, but will he be acceptable?