Diplomacy needs patience

India’s NSG gambit will depend solely on Beijing’s calculation

India’s campaign to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is now a seasonal event. The NSG plenaries are held in the summer and in the winter. New Delhi begins canvassing members about entry several weeks ahead of each meeting. Each drive has foundered on the same rock: the unchanging opposition of China to India’s entry into the elite multilateral nuclear technology regime. There is no reason not to believe that New Delhi will not face the same immoveable object again this year. Nonetheless, it is crucial for India to keep its membership on the agenda and, given other government’s concerns about procedural issues regarding India’s membership, get the necessary paperwork ready just in case.

That India can feel confident about knocking on the NSG door so often is an indication of how much the country has travelled since its years as a nuclear pariah. India is now a member of the other non-proliferation regimes: the Wassenaar agreement, the missile technology control regime and the Australia group. The NSG is the capstone of this multilateral structure. Membership would mean future rules-making in this sphere cannot happen without an Indian say. More practically, India continues to struggle to access nuclear technology from certain countries and individual corporations because of its unique legal status as a recognised nuclear weapons state country that is not part of the NSG and not a signatory of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

Multilateral diplomacy requires patience. Diplomats must keep pressing the bell, calculating that just the right set of circumstances will fall in place, and the door knob suddenly turn. The NSG gambit will depend almost solely on the calculations of Beijing. The present lowering of tensions between India and China is unlikely to make Beijing more generous about the NSG. All the indications are that China wants to ensure that India’s entry will not close the door on Pakistan becoming a member. Islamabad, however, remains in the nuclear wilderness as far as the other NSG members are concerned. Therefore, it is hard to see Beijing softening its attitude towards India.