Brazil to trump Spain in final, predicts US firm

NEW YORK: If you’re looking for a favourite when the World Cup opens next week in Russia, it’s Brazil. Spain will be the losing finalist.

If real outsiders are of interest, two to consider are Latin American teams Colombia and Peru.

Those are some of the findings from an analysis of the 32-team World Cup field run by Gracenote, a U.S-based sports and entertainment provider that’s done simulations of possible outcomes.

Of course, Gracenote is one of many World Cup predictions out there. It gets some extra credence because it’s using the Elo system, which was originally devised to rank skill levels of chess players.

Simon Gleave, who ran the World Cup analysis for Gracenote, says Brazil has just over a 21 percent chance of winning its sixth World Cup. Spain, Germany, and Argentina are ranked next. Spain has a 10 percent chance, and Germany and Argentina are listed at 8 percent.

“We have Brazil as the favorite, and we have Spain as the other finalist. This is the most likely scenario,” Gleave said.

Rather than have a few “experts” size up the teams, Gleave uses the Elo system and runs millions of simulations to determine the chances of each team at each stage of the tournament.

Here are predictions for the order of finish in each group and each team’s percentage chance to reach the final 16 stage. In the group stage, the top two teams advance to knock-out play.

The top team from Group A plays the second-place team in Group B, and the second-place team in A plays the top team in B. Groups C-D, E-F, and G-H work the same way.