Male middle-distance runners have potential to win medals in Jakarta

NEW DELHI: How have Asian athletes performed over the past four years? Have they become better? There is no clear answer to this. For example, take men’s javelin throw. The 2014 Asian Games was won with a throw of 89.15 metres. Since January 1, 2016, only one Asian athlete has thrown better than that, ChaoTsun Cheng of Chinese Taipei, who did 91.36 metres in August 2017.

India’s sole men’s javelin throw entrant Neeraj Chopra has never thrown more than 89 metres in his career. But apart from that throw by Cheng, there hasn’t been a throw more than 89 metres by any other Asian athlete either. The weak field increases Chopra’s chances of a medal.

Contrast men’s javelin throw to men’s 400m hurdles. Since January 2016, 24 different athletes have beaten the Asian Games gold-medal mark in the event. That 24 includes one Indian, Ayyasamy Dharun. He beat the 2014 gold-medal mark earlier this year in Patiala clocking 49.45 seconds. But there could be as many as six athletes at the Jakarta Asian Games with better personal bests than Dharun, reducing his chances of winning even a bronze.

What about Indian standards?

The Olympic Council of Asia has limited the number of athletes that can be sent for each track and field event to two per country.

There are many more Indian athletes out there who aren’t going. So how good are Indian athletes?

One way we can calculate this is by again looking at the 2014 Asian Games and taking not the gold-medal mark, but the bronze-medal mark into account.

We can use it to represent some kind of a minimum acceptable level of performance in international athletics.

From the graphic, it is clear that Indian male athletes excelled in middle-distance events such as the 800m and 1,500m with as many as six 800m runners doing better than the 2014 Asian Games bronze-medal performance over the past twoand-a-half years.

However, when it comes to throwing events such as the hammer and discus throws, there aren’t many Indian men performing at an international level.

In women’s athletics, we see that there is a strong base in sprint events such as the 100m, 200m and 400m.

But in long-distance events such as the 5,000m and 10,000m, Indian women are nowhere in the picture.