Opposition struggles on seats, BJP in poll mode

LUCKNOW:For the opposition parties working out a mega seat distribution deal in Uttar Pradesh, the prickly issue forestalling the final agreement is which election to pick as the benchmark — the 2009 or the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

The Congress wants 2009 to be the reference point, when the party had posted its best performance in the state. But others are looking at the 2014 elections — or an average of past three elections, with the formula being the number of seats won, the runner up, and the second runner up.

A senior Congress leader said, “As 2014 was not a normal election (referring to the pro-Modi wave), the 2009 election should become the reference point.”

Out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress had won 21, the Samajwadi Party (SP) 23, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 22 and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) five seats in 2009 when the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) received a second successive term at the Centre.

However, this is not acceptable to both the SP and the BSP as the performance of the Congress in successive elections has been very poor since 1989.

If 2014 is taken as the benchmark for the seat-sharing agreement, according to a Congress leader, there is no question of them settling below a “respectable number”. He said the party had won two seats — Rae Bareli and Amethi — and ended second in six more constituencies — Barabanki, Saharanpur, Ghaziabad, Padrauna, Lucknow and Kanpur.

While the SP had won five seats, the BSP and the RLD had failed to open their account.

Thus, the contentious issue, linked with each other, is the BSP’s demand vis-a-vis the forthcoming assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and that of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh.

The BSP is demanding about 15 seats in Chhattisgarh, and about 30 to 35 in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, even though its vote share is between 4% and 7% in the three states. BSP president Mayawati has announced a pre-poll alliance in Chhattisgarh with former chief minister Ajit Jogi’s Janta Congress Chhattisgarh.

Mayawati is following the Karnataka pattern where she bargained a minister’s post for her only legislator. Its Uttar Pradesh experiment shows the BSP gains strength after the power formation has taken place, even though as a small ally of a big party.

A senior BSP leader said, “Mayawati knows that the Congress needs her support to win the three states. So they will accommodate her demands, even if unreasonable.”

A political expert said, “From their statements, one can assume that they are not contesting the 2019 polls to unseat the BJP but to remain relevant in the state’s politics. Much to the consternation of their supporters and voters, the Opposition is only making a mockery of the much-hyped Grand Alliance. It appears winnability is hardly the criteria.”

Nonetheless, the talks have geared up at the states’ level in order to work out a consensus on majority of the seats, leaving the contentious ones for the national leadership to decide.

Apparently, the Opposition is oblivious of the scale on which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has launched an intensive public contact programme at various levels, monitored personally by the party high command even as they are grappling with seatsharing.

By the time the Opposition takes a final call on the constituencies in their respective kitties, five bikers each from 1.40 lakh booths will be on the move, campaigning for the BJP.

Perhaps, the Opposition will be tackling rebellion in each of the constituencies by the time the elections are announced, leaving little time for the leaders to transfer their respective votes to their allies and the candidates to reach their voters.

Party spokesperson Chandra Mohan said, “Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav is doing alliance politics, we are doing booth politics strengthening the party at that level.” However, he admitted Mayawati has a silent organisation working for her.

The common refrain is the Opposition should have hit the campaign trail by now if it really intended to defeat the boisterous Modi-Amit Shah combine.

Besides clarity on seats the opposition also lacks a decisive joint leadership. While the SP is caught in an intense family feud, Mayawati’s campaign starts late while the Congress is erratic in all its poll-related campaigns.

Soon after the BJP had completely decimated the opposition in the 2014 general elections, a senior politician had quipped, “Perhaps every political party needs Amit Shah to win the polls.” Many had then dismissed his observation with scorn.

As the country heads for another battle of ballots, the same leader quipped, “Miracles don’t happen, you make them happen.” He lamented the opposition’s delay in announcing the grand alliance and making conflicting statements instead.

According to BJP’s assessment, SP will get about 30, BSP 32-35 odd seats( BSP slightly higher) while Congress and RLD will share the remainder 15-18 seats. RLD had won five seats in 2009.

He said, “It appears Shah has taken the challenge from the much-hyped Grand Alliance more seriously than its prime movers. While they are still grappling with the nitty gritty of seat sharing, the BJP has launched a massive voter mobilisation programme.”

“By February-end, the BJP functionaries will have personally met about 4 crore beneficiaries of various government welfare schemes in Uttar Pradesh to drive home the point that their benefactor was the Narendra Modi-led BJP,” he said.

What should alarm BSP leader Mayawati is the claim made by Lalji Prasad Nirmal, the chairman of the UP Scheduled Caste Finance and Development Corporation, that more than 80% of the beneficiaries of the PM’s schemes were Dalits.’ After personal contact, the BJP plans to bombard them with some messages on their cell phones.

A minister recently said, “We have huge home work to complete till February 28 next, which includes enrolment of new voters, local level sammelans and social media activities.”

This time, the party morcha level workers have been told to even send selfies with the farmers they meet.

THE CONGRESS WANTS 2009 TO BE REFERENCE POINT, BUT OTHERS ARE LOOKING AT 2014 POLLS TO PICK A BENCHMARK ON WHICH TO DECIDE THE SHARING OF SEATS