Teeming millions pose myriad challenges
On August 15, 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his address to the nation, said, “Today from the ramparts of the Red Fort, I want to address the issue of population explosion in the country. Parents in India need to give a serious thought to whether they will be able to fulfil their children’s dreams and aspirations and support a new life.”
He added, “A small section of the society, which keeps their families small, deserves respect. What they are doing is an act of patriotism.” Underlining the population issue in the Independence Day address, perhaps for the first time by a PM, has led to a lively debate about the seriousness or otherwise of the problem of population in India. Some argue that given the decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and consequently in the rate of growth of population, the problem of population is not as serious as it used to be. At the other end of the spectrum, there are people who do believe that India does have a serious problem of a large population, especially when seen in relation to her resources.
In this respect, two things are noteworthy. It is true that the rate of growth of population in India has moderated over time. But the sheer size of India’s population and its momentum propels it to an ever bigger and bigger size. Second, the population problem in India does have a regional and sub-regional dimension. The TFR in 13 states out of 22 major states of India has declined to a replacement level i.e.2.1 or below it. On the other hand, there are states and within them districts where TFR is still very high. Except Assam, all these states are in the Hindi heartland. The future population dynamics in India would be decided by what happens in regard to control of population in the states and districts with high TFR.
Right now, India is the second most populous country of the world with a population of 1.37 billion in 2019 as per estimates by the United Nations. But the country is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country around 2027 and would hold that position through the end of current century.
Interestingly, Uttar Pradesh, if considered as a country, is fifth in terms of population. Only China, India, the USA and Indonesia are ahead of it. Every sixth person on earth is an Indian and every sixth person in India lives in UP. As per the Census 2011, the population of UP stood at 199.8 million (19.98 crore) which was 16.5% of India’s population of 121.02 crore (1.21 billion). More importantly, what happens to the population growth in UP would have a very significant impact on India.
National Commission on Population (2006) had estimated that during 20012026 about 371million people would be added to India’s population of which 22.2% would be contributed by UP alone. It is also significant that among the 145 districts in India identified as having TFR or three or more, 57 districts belong to UP. It would be instructive to have a look at the growth of population of UP over time.
SCENARIO IN THE STATE
For the first time in five decades, the population growth rate in UP declined to 20.02% during 2001-2011. Still, a careful look at some of the demographic indicators of UP cautions us against believing that population growth is no longer a problem for the state.
As per the latest Sample Registration System(SRS) Bulletin of May 2019, Crude Birth Rate (CBR) for UP is 25.9. It is the second highest in India which, given the Crude Death Rate of 6.7, results in a Natural Growth Rate (NGR) of 19.2 that is quite high. Notwithstanding a decline in population growth rate during 2001-11, because of its large base, UP will continue to experience huge population pressure in years to come.
The burgeoning population of UP poses myriad challenges to the state. These are further accentuated by poor health outcomes and infrastructure in the state. According to the Composite Health Index constructed by the NITI Aayog, with a score of 28.61, UP is at the bottom among all the states.
The adverse demographic conditions in UP have serious implications for many social, economic, and environmental problems. A high growth of population makes it very difficult to increase the level of per capita income and standard of living of people. For the year 2017-18 at current prices, the per capita income of UP is estimated to be Rs55,339 that is only 49% of India’ per capita income of Rs112,835 at current prices. The gap between India’s and UP’s per capita income has been widening over time. Although in terms of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) at current prices, UP is the third largest economy in the country, but its rank in per capita income is second from the bottom. The main reason for this is the rising population of the state.
A large population puts enormous pressure on public utilities like water, sanitation, health, education, transport, power, and communications and even on administrative machinery. Even to maintain the existing level of these facilities requires a huge amount of resources. Further, unbridled growth of population also affects the environment. It is also reflected in the increasing density of population. Density of population in UP increased from 250 in 1951 to 829 per square km in 2011.
Like India with a large young population, UP can also reap the ‘demographic dividend’. However, for this to happen many complementary things are required.
Foremost among these is the stabilisation of population at a sustainable level, increase in the quality of human resources, and their productive employment. In the absence of this, instead of a demographic dividend, the state may face a demographic disaster.