SA pacers must target stumps

India’s home record is terrifying for visiting teams. Of the last 30 Tests at home, India have lost just one; of their last 50, they have lost just four. Home conditions as clearly defined as India’s (highscoring and flat, slowly breaking up over four-to-five days) have allowed the coaching staff and captain to prepare the side with specific plans and roles. The only home Test Kohli has lost— against Australia in Pune—was when the surface was radically different from what had been expected. Just 4.3% of home Tests under Kohli have ended in defeats, making India the most impenetrable Test nation.

How can South Africa compete in this upcoming series?

IMPROVE AGAINST SPIN

South Africa have issues playing spin that are long-running and technical. In the last decade, only Zimbabwe batsmen have a lower batting average against spin in Asia than South Africans. As a batsman, the most dangerous place to intercept spin bowling is between 2m and 3m from your stumps.

It’s the classic situation of not having gone forward or back, the “danger zone” where you lose a significant amount of control, and are playing with too much risk. Deliveries intercepted in that zone average far less than those intercepted elsewhere.

A fundamental part of playing spin well is not intercepting deliveries in that zone, and getting fully forward or back. Since South Africa last went to India in 2015, no side in the world has played in the ‘danger-zone’ more regularly.

It’s too late for a coach to set about trying to change that approach across the team as a whole. However, it’s not too late for individuals to try and engage with the issue.

KEEP DE KOCK AT NO 7

Since the start of 2017, Quinton de Kock averages 34.26 with the bat, and has made two centuries. He is dismissed every 34 times he plays a defensive stroke. The average is 65 for all top six batsmen in that period. De Kock’s defensive game, in fact, is globally very poor. Since the start of 2017, 60 Test batsmen have played 400 defensive shots, and only two of them lose their wicket more often than de Kock.

Whilst his returns at No.6 in the series against Sri Lanka (80, 55, 86, 1) were impressive, South Africa will have to put de Kock in a position where he is least likely to need that defensive game. Get him down the order, even if he dominates.

TRUST ELGAR’S BOWLING

Dean Elgar may have only taken 14 Test wickets, but his average of 44.50 is more than acceptable as a part-timer. His automatic selection (as opener) solves a tricky selection issue visiting teams face in Asia—how to get enough spinners into the side. Often the quandary is whether to try and squeeze an extra all-rounder in, to have the luxury of three seamers.

But South Africa need to trust the quality of Elgar’s bowling and have him and Theunis de Bruyn as a combined fifth bowler. Elgar’s record is actually underselling the quality of his bowling. His Expected Average (built from ball-tracking data to calculate what we’d ‘expect’ his deliveries to average) is 39. Targeting the pads of an Indian line-up dominated by right-handers, he could be key.

TARGET STUMPS...DON’T SWEAT ON LENGTH

Visiting India as a seamer is one of the toughest assignments in the modern era, alongside being an opening batsman in England or a finger spinner in Australia. In the last decade, only three visiting seamers have taken 10 plus wickets in a series in India: Dale Steyn in 2010, James Anderson in 2012 and Trent Boult in 2016.

Many bowlers have tried to adapt their approach, which has taken them as far as it possibly can in the red-ball game. Generally, it focuses on a particular idea, that the only way to take wickets in India is to target the stumps and wait for the batsmen to miss it.

There’s some truth in it. Seamers in Asia get a higher percentage of their wickets lbw or bowled than anywhere else.

In the last five years, the average wicket ball for a seamer in Asia pitched 7.47m from the stumps; in South Africa, that figure is 7.26m. That isn’t incitement to just bowl bouncers on pitches that won’t offer too much help, but encouragement that you don’t just need to run up and bowl drive balls every over.