US, Taliban sign deal to end war in Afghanistan
DOHA/KABUL/NEWDELHI: The US and the Taliban signed a deal on Saturday that could lead to the complete withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan over the next 14 months if the insurgents deliver on commitments not to allow the country to be used by terror groups and commence intra-Afghan negotiations.
The deal was signed in the Qatari capital Doha by US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and senior Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Biradar soon after the Afghan government and the US issued a joint declaration that laid out Kabul’s readiness to participate in negotiations and conclude a ceasefire with the Taliban.
India reacted cautiously to the US-Taliban deal, reiterating its policy of supporting all moves that ensure peace and stability in Afghanistan, cut ties with international terrorism, and lead to a lasting political settlement through an Afghan-led, Afghanowned and Afghan-controlled process.
US secretary of state Mike Pompeo, who was present at the signing ceremony in Doha along with representatives of some 30 countries, including India, told a news conference that the US expects countries in the region, including Pakistan, to continue to “promote a peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan so that the country and region can reap the benefits of lasting peace”.
The US has depended significantly on Pakistan to assist in the negotiations with the Taliban, many of whose top leaders are still based in Pakistani cities such as Karachi and Quetta. Biradar, a co-founder of the Afghan Taliban, was captured by Pakistani security agencies in Karachi in 2010 and he was released in late 2018 at the request of the US to facilitate the negotiations.
The so-called “comprehensive peace agreement” between the US and the Taliban has four parts – guarantees that Afghan soil will not be used by terror groups, guarantees for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban starting intra-Afghan negotiations from March 10, and negotiations for a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire” and a “future political road map of Afghanistan”. “The four parts are interrelated and each will be implemented in accordance with its own agreed timeframe and agreed terms. Agreement on the first two parts paves the way for
the last two parts,” the agreement states.
The US will cut troop strength in Afghanistan to 8,600 and ensure a proportional reduction in the forces of its allies in 135 days and subsequently all foreign forces will be withdrawn in 14 months if the Taliban delivers on its commitments. The US will also release up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners by March 10, review American sanctions and rewards on Taliban leaders to remove them by August 27, and work with members of the UN to remove the world body’s sanctions by May 29. The Taliban will have to ensure that terror groups such as al Qaeda are not based on Afghan soil or use the country for recruiting, training and fund-raising.
The US-Afghanistan joint declaration, unveiled during a visit to Kabul by defence secretary Mark Esper, states the agreement with the Taliban “paves the way for intra-Afghan negotiations on a political settlement and a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire” and that “Afghanistan reaffirms its readiness to participate in such negotiations and its readiness to conclude a ceasefire with the Taliban”.
However, experts believe these negotiations between multiple Afghan factions will be complicated. Moreover, the deal doesn’t set timeframes for completing the intra-Afghan negotiations or political road map and is silent on crucial matters such as women’s rights put in place since the ouster of the Taliban in 2001 and which India has insisted must be protected. Esper’s visit, officials said, was aimed at reassuring the government of President Ashraf Ghani about Washington’s commitment to Afghanistan. The deal was inked after a week-long period of “reduction in violence” by both sides. “If the Taliban uphold the agreement, the US will begin a conditionsbased, and I repeat conditionsbased, reduction in forces,” Esper said. He added if the Taliban did live up to commitments, the US wouldn’t hesitate to nullify the agreement. For US President Donald Trump, the deal represents a chance to deliver on his longstanding promise to bring US troops home as he begins the campaign for his re-election.
“The biggest thing is that we hope the US remains committed to their promises during the negotiation and peace deal,” said Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid.
For millions of Afghans, the deal represents some hope for an end to years of fighting. But security experts have called the agreement a foreign policy gamble that would give the Taliban international legitimacy. Senior members of the Afghan government and nations surrounding Afghanistan are concerned the US could abandon the country, much like it was perceived to have left the region after the Soviet Union exited Afghanistan decades ago. It is also not clear whether the Afghan government will agree to the release of 5,000 Taliban members, and whether fighters loyal to hardline splinter groups will adhere to the reduction in violence. People in the Taliban said earlier this month they were prepared to launch a spring offensive if the agreement collapses and had recruited more than 6,000 fighters and suicide bombers. The political situation in Afghanistan too continues to be fragile after the election commission recently announced Ghani won last year’s election plagued by allegations of rigging and other irregularities. Former chief executive Abdullah Abdullah rejected the results and vowed a parallel government.
For India, which has extended assistance worth $3 billion to Afghanistan in the face of Pakistan’s efforts to oppose its influence in the war-torn country, the stakes are extremely high. Indian officials believe the Taliban, which has targeted Indian interests in Afghanistan, continues to act at the behest of the Pakistani military establishment.
Reacting to both the deal with the Taliban and the joint declaration, external affairs ministry spokesperson Raveesh Kumar said: “India’s consistent policy is to support all opportunities that can bring peace, security and stability in Afghanistan; end violence; cut ties with international terrorism; and lead to a lasting political settlement through an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled process.”
He said the entire political spectrum in Afghanistan, including the government, the democratic polity and civil society, had “welcomed the opportunity and hope for peace and stability generated by these agreements”. He added, “As a contiguous neighbour, India will continue to extend all support to the government and people of Afghanistan in realising their aspirations for a peaceful, democratic and prosperous future where the interests of all sections of Afghan society are protected.” Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center, said that “Washington is essentially trying to show that its full strength is behind this deal and it wants to also indicate to Kabul that it’s fully behind Afghanistan as the peace and reconciliation process moves toward a formal beginning”.
Former president George W Bush ordered the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 attacks in 2001. The US spent more than $750 billion and lost about 2,400 soldiers in the war.
There are more than 16,500 soldiers serving under the NATO banner, of which 8,000 are American. Germany has the next largest contingent, with 1,300 troops, followed by Britain with 1,100. The US has a separate contingent of 5,000 troops deployed for counterterror missions and to provide air and ground support to Afghan forces.
IT IS ALSO NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE AFGHAN GOVT WILL AGREE TO THE RELEASE OF 5,000 TALIBAN MEMBERS