South-west monsoon to be late by 4 days in Kerala, says IMD

NEWDELHI: The onset of south-west monsoon over Kerala is likely to be delayed by four days and is expected to arrive on June 5, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday. The monsoon, however, is likely to arrive over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands four days in advance over the next 48 hours, it added.

The onset over Kerala marks the beginning of the four-month monsoon season when India receives 70% of its annual rainfall. IMD’s south-west monsoon forecasts provide information to at least 700 million people in

India, who are dependent on agriculture for livelihood. The delay could have implications for farmers impacted by economic slowdown associated with the Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdown.

The monsoon is crucial for the yield of rice, wheat, sugarcane, and oilseeds in a country where farming accounts for about 15% of the economy but employs over half of its people. An abnormally higher number of western disturbances affecting the western Himalayan are among the reasons that can make monsoon advancement slightly sluggish and delay its onset over Kerala.

Western disturbances are lowpressure systems that generally originate over the Mediterranean region. “We are seeing stronger mid-latitude westerly activity, which will delay the establishment of monsoon flow over the Southern Peninsula,” said DS Pai, a senior scientist and monsoon expert at IMD, Pune.

“At the same time, the development of cyclone near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands is pulling the monsoon winds to that region. So even if the monsoon is established, monsoon flow will get delayed; its progression will be impacted,” added Pai. Union earth sciences secretary M Rajeevan said the onset of the monsoon over Kerala is not a local phenomenon.