Lockdown delayed Covid peak: Study

NEW DELHI: The eight-week lockdown in India shifts the peak of the epidemic by 34-76 days and reduces the number of cases at the end of the lockdown by 69-97% , a new pre-print study by academics at the Department of Community Medicine and

School of Public health at the Post Graduate Institute of Medical Research and Education and Research, Chandigarh, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, ICMR, New Delhi claimed.

India imposed a lockdown that was nearly 10 weeks long and some of the restrictions are still in place (although many have been eased).

The study, which is yet to be peer reviewed also claimed that “intensification of public health surveillance measures with 60% effectiveness” would reduce the number of cases at the peak by 70% and cumulatively by 26.6%.

Such measures would also reduce the requirement for ICU beds and ventilators by 83%, the study added.

Interestingly, the study puts the cost of managing Covid-19 at India at 4.5% of GDP in the absence of any “intervention” and 6.2% with “intensified public health measures.”

The study was based on a Susceptible-Exposed-InfectiousRecovered (or SERI) model.

Worryingly, the study said that India’s health care infrastructure may prove inadequate later this year with the demand for isolation and ICU beds and ventilators exceeding supply in November even with “intensified public health measures with 60% effectiveness.”

The study was funded by ICMR.