Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai gear up for Covid battle
Projections say the 3 states are yet to reach peak infections
MUMBAI/CHENNAI/NEWDELHI: First, some projections. By the end of this month, according to estimates by officials and researchers going only by the rise in new cases since June 8, when Unlock 1.0 came into force, the number of Covid-19 cases in Mumbai would be 80,000; 100,000 in New Delhi and 71,000 in Chennai, which officials of all three metropolises agree, would test their health infrastructure.
The unlock guidelines, crucial to restart economic activities and prepare the country to live with Covid-19, has led to a spurt in cases in most states. Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai however, account for more than half the total cases in the country today. They are among the 65 most critical Covid-19 affected districts, according to the health ministry.
The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), which is handling Covid-19 cases in the Mumbai, estimates that if the same pace continued, it will have over 100,000 by mid July.
Suresh Kakani, BMC’s additional municipal commissioner, said that the numbers have stabilised in the past month. But there is concern: in the past month, Mumbai has seen a daily addition of between 1,000 to 1,700 cases.
“We cannot estimate saturation point. We will have to wait for one more week,” he said. On Friday, Mumbai’s case count was 64,139 (1264 fresh cases), and 3425 deaths (114 new deaths). The mortality rate in the city was 5.33%.
The BMC has set up 90 clinics in areas of high case concentration, such as Dharavi, Worli Koliwada, Mankhurd and Govandi, and also stepped up screening in others. “We have conducted over 269,000 tests, and are maintaining daily tests at 4,500 to 5,000. Our capacity is around 7,000-8,000 tests daily,” Kakani said.
Dr Siddarth Paliwal, a citybased private health consultant said, “In the last one month capacity of the health infrastructure has doubled. We will have to scale up faster if we are of the belief that the peak has yet not arrived.” He added that the occupancy rate of the ICU beds and ventilators was above 90%.
Chennai, by comparison, has fewer cases, but accounts for 70% of the total in Tamil Nadu. The state announced a complete 12-day lockdown starting Friday in Chennai and adjoining districts of Chengapattu, Thiruvallur and Kancheepuram. There has been a steady rise in cases and deaths and lack of public cooperation in maintaining social distance and masks.
By June 7, Chennai had 22149 out of the state’s 31667 cases. Ten days later, Chennai breached the 35000-mark while Tamil Nadu crossed the 50000-mark. This month, the state reported more than 1,000 new cases everyday with Chennai accounting for most. In the first week of May state-run Tamil Nadu Dr MGR Medical University projected that Chennai would have roughly 150,000 cases by the second week of July. This may change with the lockdown. “Rather than focussing resources on people in the containment zones, the city now has to control its population of 8 million,” said a member of the task force constituted to recommend ways to control Covid-19 spread.Chennai has prepared a micro-level plan for its 200 wards with an assistant engineer in-charge at each ward. The municipal corporation is conducting door-to-door surveys and has set up more than 400 fever camps and 10 mobile sample collection centres. “We need 30,000-35,000 beds to manage our peak,” its commissioner G Prakash had said.
There is no clear data of daily tests in Chennai, but it is roughly pegged at 5,000. According to the health bulletin of June 19, 160,000 samples were tested in the city. Tamil Nadu, which was testing around 18,000 samples a day has ramped it up to 25,000 in the past three days. However, experts say Chennai alone needs to test at least 10,000 people per day.
“We began easing lockdown norms since May but did not significantly ramp up testing in Chennai or plan an aggressive containment strategy,” said a member of the government-appointed medical expert panel quoted above. As of June 19, Tamil Nadu has tested 789,408 individuals, which is 71,725 more than Maharashtra and 60% more than Gujarat.
“We need aggressive testing and early isolation of people with symptoms and their contacts. If a person is isolated within 3 to 4 days, transmission can be cut by half,” says Dr Prabhdeep Kaur, a member of the government appointed expert medical panel and deputy director, National Institute of Epidemiology.
In Delhi, the average daily increase of confirmed cases has grown by 9%, against 6% daily average for the 11 days prior to Unlock 1.0. On June 9, the government had projected that the total Covid cases (including recoveries) would be around 2,24,537 by July 15.
Even though the fatality rate is at 5.5% now, versus 3.7% prior to June 8, the recovery rate has improved from 27% to 49% in the 11-day period. Delhi is conducting more tests than before and as on June 19, it has conducted 15,400 tests per million with positivity rate of 31%, up from 7% on May 17.
To cope with the anticipated increase, the Delhi government plans to have 80,000 beds by end of July from the present 10,889. The government has identified 40 hotels (4,628 beds) and 77 banquet halls (11,229 beds) that are being turned into Covid care centres, said CM Arvind Kejriwal. In addition, the government is planning to build the country’s biggest Covid Care Centre at a religious institute in south Delhi, which will add 10,000 more beds. Besides, 50 train coaches with 800 beds have also been readied.
Will these cities cope with the rise cases remains to be seen, but they are bracing for impact.