Forecast for US: 410,000 Covid deaths by year end
New IHME prediction says 3,000 Americans will die every day in December if people continue to ignore wearing face masks
WASHINGTON/ PARIS: US deaths from the coronavirus pandemic will reach 410,000 by the end of the year, more than double the current death toll, and fatalities could soar to a staggering 3,000 per day in December, the University of Washington’s health institute predicted on Friday.
The US, which has the world’s third largest population, leads the world with more than 187,000 Covid-19 deaths and over 6.2 million coronavirus cases.
Deaths could be reduced by 30% if more Americans wore face masks as epidemiologists have advised, but mask-wearing is declining, the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said.
The US death rate projected by the IHME model, which has been cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force, would more than triple the current death rate of some 850 per day.
“We expect the daily death rate in the United States, because of seasonality and declining vigilance of the public, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December,” the institute, which bills itself as an independent research centre, said in an update of its periodic forecasts.
“Cumulative deaths expected by January 1, 2021 are 410,000; this is 225,000 deaths from now until the end of the year,” the institute said. It had earlier projected 317,697 deaths by December 1. The model’s outlook for the world was even more dire, with deaths projected to triple to 2.8 million by January 1, 2021.
France recorded almost 9,000 new Covid-19 cases on Friday night, setting a record since the beginning of the pandemic, while more people were hospitalised as a result of the respiratory disease.
Health authorities said that there had been 8,975 new confirmed cases, almost 1,500 higher than the previous March 31 daily peak of 7,578, when France was in one of Europe’s strictest coronavirus lockdowns.
The surge in parts of France, which is partially due to increased testing, has meant a dozen schools have been forced to close just days into the new academic year.
The seven-day average of new infections stood at an eighth consecutive record of 6,011, versus a low of 272 on May 27 - two weeks after authorities lifted the two-month-long lockdown. The cumulative number of cases now totals 309,156. The rise in infections has mainly affected young people, who are less likely to develop complications.
As governments around the world enforce measures to slow the virus, police in Australia which has reported 26,200 cases and 748 deaths - arrested more than a dozen protesters in Melbourne on Saturday for deliberately flouting the city’s stay-athome orders.
Pope Francis is next month set to make what will be his first visit outside Rome since Italy was put under lockdown in March when it became the first country in Europe to feel the full brunt of the pandemic.
Francis’ last trip away from Rome was to the southern Italian city of Bari, in February, just as the outbreak was erupting in northern Italy.