Rain burst likely before monsoon withdrawal

NEW DELHI: Parts of India are likely to experience a late burst of rainfall in the next two to three days when the monsoon normally begins its gradual withdrawal. A low-pressure area over northwest India is likely to bring widespread and heavy rains to the west coast, the east and the peninsular region, India Meteorological Department (IMD) scientists said on Monday.

IMD scientists are expecting the withdrawal of monsoon to commence from west Rajasthan only after September 25; the four-month monsoon will come to an end on September 30, and any rain after that will be counted as post-monsoon rain.

As of Monday, the monsoon is 7% excess this year, although there are significant variations across regions. It is 29% excess over the southern peninsula, 14% excess over central India, 1% excess over northeast India, but 16% deficient over northwest India. Since a plus/minus 19% deviation from the long period average is counted as normal, this means rainfall is normal in three of the regions, and above normal in the fourth.

Following intense showers in the west, east and even several parts of Uttar Pradesh, IMD is expecting reduced rainfall over the country, which may make conditions favourable for commencement of monsoon withdrawal from northwest India.

“The low pressure system will move west-north-westwards up to central Madhya Pradesh and then recurve towards Uttar Pradesh. We are expecting very good rains in UP too during this spell,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist at the National Weather Forecasting Centre.

The low pressure area is lying over Bay of Bengal and adjoining north coastal Odisha.

“We are expecting rains to reduce significantly once this low pressure system passes. There is no likelihood of another low pressure area forming in the next seven days,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.

The normal date for commencement of monsoon withdrawal from northwest India is September 17 and for complete withdrawal from the country, October 15. The new monsoon onset and withdrawal dates were issued by IMD in April. Until last year, the normal date for commencement of withdrawal was September 1 and for complete withdrawal was October 15 .