The significance of the upcoming state elections
Will the ongoing farm agitation change political equations in the country? The upcoming assembly elections in four states — Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu — and the Union Territory of Puducherry could provide some answers. In any event, these elections are of significant political import.
In Assam, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government had made provisions for the controversial National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) at the beginning of its second term. This resulted in a range of protests across the country, the most notable one being at Shaheen Bagh in Delhi. Subsequently, the Delhi riots took place, which led to the loss of dozens of lives.
The provisions were meant to address the issue of the influx of Bangladeshi migrants. But it soon became evident that the laws would affect not just Bangladeshi migrants but also natives of Assam. The government was forced to put the proposals on hold, but with elections around the corner, these issues have come into the spotlight again in the state.
Will the Congress-led coalition, which was in power in the state till 2016, be able to assume power in Guwahati? As in other states, the grand old party is facing internal strife as it takes on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with its strong platform of majoritarian nationalism. The BJP’s veteran leaders such as party president JP Nadda and home minister Amit Shah are going all out to ensure the party’s victory. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself has begun addressing rallies in the state.
In West Bengal, the BJP is facing an aggressive Trinamool Congress with a feisty Mamata Banerjee at the helm. This is why the BJP, with considerable foresight, deployed a fiery leader such as Kailash Vijayvargiya in the state five years ago. He has been able to win over several leaders considered loyal to Mamata Banerjee to the BJP. The BJP’s signature move under Amit Shah has been the fracturing of local parties during elections. It has been relentlessly holding rallies and raising the issue of what it terms the Trinamool’s politics of “minority appeasement”. The BJP’s aggression has paid off and it is the Trinamool’s main rival today. The Congress and the Left hardly feature in the fray. However, it is still not all smooth sailing for the BJP given the hurdles that the Trinamool will put in its way.
About 62% of Bengal’s voters are in nine of its 23 districts. Of the total of 294 assembly seats, 185 are in these nine districts. These will dictate the course of the election. The Trinamool claims that the BJP is shaky in these districts. About 30% of the state’s voters are Muslims. Once Left supporters, they have largely shifted their loyalties to Mamata Banerjee. But, now Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen has made an entry into Bengal after its impressive performance in Bihar earlier. Will this have an effect on the Muslim vote?
In Kerala, over the last 40 years, the state has voted alternatively for the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF). Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi represents the Wayanad seat in the Lok Sabha, giving the party some cause for hope. But the LDF has performed well in many areas over the last five years. It did well in handling the floods of 2018, 2019 and 2020 and its initial handling of the Covid-19 pandemic was impressive.
The Congress and Left are rivals here, though they have come together in other places in the country. This may be confusing for the voters but, then again, such political conundrums are nothing new to India.
Tamil Nadu is going into the elections this time without stalwarts such as the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) leader J Jayalalithaa and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leader M Karunanidhi. While Karunanidhi had handed over the reins of the party to his son MK Stalin, the AIADMK has no successor to Jayalalithaa. This has made it prone to internal rifts and vulnerable to poaching by other parties. The announcement by Jayalalithaa’s long-time companion, Sasikala — after her release from jail in Bengaluru — that she is entering politics has complicated the picture. But it is not clear how much support she enjoys in the party or how effective she will be in improving its electoral prospects.
While the Lok Sabha elections are still far away, each assembly election going forward will have a bearing on national politics. After all, 116 Members of Parliament (MPs) come from these five states. Muslims make up 28 to 32% of the electorate in Kerala, West Bengal and Assam. This gives the BJP the opportunity to play the politics of polarisation, but it equally gives the Congress a chance to consolidate its old voter base. These five states are also going to shape the destiny of the Left and regional parties. While many things are still up in the air, one thing is certain: These elections will have a crucial bearing on the politics of the future and will provide much fodder to political analysts.