What Pangong means for Asian geopolitics
If disengagement leads to a border pact, the deal is prudent. If Beijing uses it as a tactical pause, then New Delhi may regret concessions
Defence minister Rajnath Singh announced the consensual disengagement of troops by both China and India at the contested Pangong lake in Parliament on February 11. This development, and the gradual pullback of tanks and the dismantling of infrastructure that has taken place by both militaries in a synchronised and verified manner, are cause for modest satisfaction.
However, like the proverbial curate’s egg, the potential for good and bad outcomes in the long-term would have to be assessed in an objective and informed manner.
In a nutshell, after nine rounds of talks between the military commanders, both sides have agreed to a process which will see Chinese troops pulling back east of Finger 8, while Indian troops will remain at Finger 3 near the Dhan Singh Thapa Post. The area between Finger 4 and Finger 8 will be a no-man’s land, with a temporary cessation of patrols and related military activities by both sides, pending further agreement between the two countries.
Spurs along the Pangong lake have been designated as Fingers 1 to 8 from west to east. India has maintained that its claim line of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) extends up to Finger 8. In early 2020, China exploited a tactical gap and moved the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops up to Finger 4 and attempted to alter LAC by a show of force. India’s calibrated response of August 29 at the Kailash range enabled Delhi to acquire a certain tactical advantage. This proved to be a valuable negotiating asset in the protracted talks that culminated in the current disengagement process. Once this round of disengagement is complete, more negotiations will take place to reach the final Indian objective of a return to the status quo on
LAC that prevailed in early 2020 prior to the “surprise” Chinese intrusion.
It is significant that China has agreed to pull back from a position of relative tactical advantage and one may conjecture that the Indian occupation of the Kailash heights enabled this compromise.
Many questions have been raised in India about the nature of this disengagement process and whether it is a fair deal. The Congress has termed the “creation of a buffer zone” as a “surrender of Indian interests”. In a written response, the ministry of defence has asserted that “India has not conceded any territory as a result of this agreement”. On the contrary, the statement says, India has “enforced observance and respect for LAC and prevented any unilateral change in the status quo”.
While the disengagement process is a work-in-progress, it merits notice that the cessation of patrolling by both sides, in what is now a no-man’s land, is on the Indian side of LAC — that is west of Finger 8. Whether this will be a temporary arrangement for the Indian troops, pending further resolution of the long-festering territorial tangle between India and China, or whether it becomes the new status quo remains a key question.
Of immediate concern also is the status of the Depsang plateau and the Y junction where China has acquired a tactical advantage that can jeopardise India’s access to Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) and air assets in that region. While noting that the Depsang issue predates the Pangong intrusion, and there are other friction points in eastern Ladakh, India must remain cognisant of the big picture — the unresolved territorial dispute from west to east that spans almost 4,000 km.
Will the current disengagement and the acceptance of a temporary suspension by India of patrolling rights in one area lead to greater malleability in managing LAC — remember China has been reluctant in clarifying LAC despite repeated Indian attempts — and provide a road map for transiting to an agreed border? That would be the most desirable outcome, in which case the current compromise by India would be a prudent
political determination. An equitable and consensually settled border remains the elusive Holy Grail for Delhi.
However, if this is only a brief pause for Beijing and President Xi Jinping as China prepares for a major political event — the July centenary celebrations of the Communist Party of China — and the PLA subsequently reverts to its pattern of territorial assertiveness at LAC, then the curate’s egg analogy would come into play. Delhi may rue the accommodations it has made in the current disengagement process. Any intractable issue, such as the impasse on Pangong, needs some give and take to find a way ahead. But Indian military commanders must remain acutely aware of the tactical and strategic stakes involved and proceed in a prudent manner with fallback plans for the less desirable exigency of LAC morphing into another Line of Control. This would be an unfortunate outcome and the price extracted would
be substantial.
Whatever the final outcome, it will have an impact on external interlocutors such as the United States (US), Russia and China’s other neighbours. While Delhi’s resolve to resist Beijing’s aggressive bellicosity effectively will be noted by the smaller nations, the Delhi-Beijing bilateral dynamic will also shape — and be shaped by — the US-China-India triangle. President Joe Biden has signalled that the US will hold Beijing’s feet to the fire over the Indo-Pacific and the principles of freedom of navigation and territorial integrity, with a continued focus on reinvigorating Quad.
How China reads this message, and how it wishes to orient itself in relation to contested territoriality will shape many outcomes in Asia and beyond. Pangong is the bellwether.
JOSHIMATH: The environment ministry said in a statement on Monday that it has come up with a common policy for the seven under-construction hydropower projects in the higher reaches of Uttarakhand, a move that gains significance in the wake of the February 7 glacial lake overflow flood in the Rishi Ganga valley.
Experts and activists have however, warned that allowing construction and operation of the plants could potentially amplify disasters in the ecologically sensitive region.
The policy, which is to be presented in the Supreme Court in July, has been drafted by the environment, power and Jal Shakti ministries.
One of the seven projects is National Thermal Power Corporations’ 520 MW Tapovan Vishnugad project that has been completely destroyed following the flood on February 7 and which will have to be rebuilt. As of Tuesday, the bodies of 17 workers have been recovered and 123 are missing at the Tapovan Vishnugad site.
The list includes the 444 MW
Vishnugad Pipalkoti, a few kilometres downstream of Tapovan; the 99 MW Singoli Bhatwari; and the 76MW Phata Byung projects . The Tapovan Vishnugad project is in a so-called paraglacial zone (above 2,000m in Uttarakhand), and the Vishnugad Pipalkoti, Singoli Bhatwari and Phata Byung projects are located in areas bordering paraglacial zones. These are landscapes that are extremely vulnerable to changes in geology related to glacial retreat.
The apex court, in its order dated January 24, 2015 in the Alaknanda Hydro Power Co. Ltd Versus Anuj Joshi & Ors, sought a common policy framework from the environment, power and Jal Shakti ministries for implementation of projects in the upper reaches of the Ganga (Alaknanda and Bhagirathi
Basin). “A common policy framework has been arrived at with consensus on implementation of the following seven under construction projects,” the statement from the environment ministry said.
Hydropower projects impact ecological flow in the Ganga and they can amplify disasters from extreme weather events as was seen in the February 7 glacial flood. Ecological flow is the minimum flow needed in a river to sustain life. Dams and hydropower projects create barriers to this flow.
Experts hope that the February 7 flood will be the last such reminder of the risks associated with hydropower projects in these regions.
The impact of the February 7 disaster would have been manifold had the flash floods impacted Vishnugad Pipalkoti, which is under construction a few kilometres downstream of the Tapovan Vishnugad project. Further downstream of Pipalkoti is the Srinagar hydroelectric project of 330 MW, which is already generating electricity but is vulnerable to upstream floods.
In 2013, the apex court ruled that no new hydroelectric power projects should be set up in Uttarakhand. In all, 69 projects were envisaged in the region, and 24 were granted environmental clearance; these clearances were also stayed by SC. The court sought a detailed and scientific assessment of the cumulative impact of hydropower plants in the state.
Following the SC order, a committee headed by Ravi Chopra, director of the People’s Science Institute, submitted a detailed report which warned that a glacial retreat coupled with structures built for hydroelectricity generation and dams, could lead to large-scale disasters downstream.
“We had recommended that 23 of the 24 hydropower projects should be cancelled. My opinion is that those under construction should also be cancelled. Tapovan Vishnugad is already destroyed and will take years to be commissioned... Vishnugad Pipalkoti is again very close to the para-glacial zone and extremely vulnerable. Why would the government want to commission these,” said Chopra. The 2013 court order came in the wake of Kedarnath flash floods.
ONE OF THE PROJECTS IS THE NTPC TAPOVAN VISHNUGAD PLANT WHICH WAS DESTROYED IN THE FEBRUARY 7 FLOOD
BEIJING/SEOUL: China has arrested dozens of suspects including the “kingpin” of a gang who packaged and sold thousands of doses of fake Covid-19 vaccines in the country and abroad, state media reported.
The leader of the gang, identified as Kong, packaged some 58,000 doses of saline and mineral water solutions as antiCovid vaccine and sold them in batches including to unidentified countries. They made profit worth some 18 million yuan ($2.78mn). Kong closely studied the design of vaccine packages available in the market and online before launching the multi-million-dollar fraud, official news agency Xinhua reported.
‘Hacking bid on Pfizer’
North Korean hackers tried to break into the computer systems of pharmaceutical giant Pfizer in a search for information on a coronavirus vaccine and treatment technology, South Korea’s spy agency said on Tuesday.
Seoul’s National Intelligence Service “briefed us that North Korea tried to obtain technology involving the Covid vaccine and treatment by using cyberwarfare to hack into Pfizer”, South Korean lawmaker Ha Tae-keung told reporters.
Court row on Dutch curbs
A Dutch court ordered the government on Tuesday to end the curfew it imposed last month, saying the ruling coalition was not entitled to use emergency powers to enforce the measure.
The government of the Netherlands immediately appealed and asked the court to suspend the order prohibiting the curfew. A hearing into the request to suspend the order was halted after just a few minutes when a member of the group that sought to overturn the curfew accused the presiding judge of bias.
Cases falling rapidly in US
Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations are dropping dramatically across the US, suggesting that measures to interrupt transmission are working.
More than 27.6 million Americans have tested positive, likely giving them some degree of immunity. A rising number 11.8% of the population - has now received at least one dose of a vaccine. And data gathered from mobile phones suggest people are being more cautious day-today. If cases keep falling, it could buy time for the vaccination effort to take hold in the warm summer months ahead, potentially underpinning a longsought economic recovery.
J&J seeks EU nod for jab Johnson & Johnson has applied for authorisation for their coronavirus vaccine in the EU with a decision possible by the middle of March, the European Medicines Agency said on Tuesday.
MUMBAI: Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) board of directors on Tuesday discussed ways to exit the stimulus measures introduced to combat the economic impact of the Covid pandemic in a post-budget review.
Sitharaman addressed the RBI board of directors on the thinking behind her budget for 2021-22 and the priorities of the government. The meeting which was held via videoconferencing also included minister of state for finance and corporate affairs Anurag Singh Thakur, finance secretary Ajay Bhushan Pandey and secretary, department of investment and public asset management Tuhin Kanta Pandey.
“The two key takeaways from the meeting were inflation targeting and credit expansion... (The matter of) what exit plans do the government and the RBI have in terms of coming out of the expansionary stimulus?” said a person who attended the matter, seeking anonymity.
“On privatization, FM mentioned that sudden developments should be avoided, alluding to the recent private sector bank mergers,” he added.
The RBI had mentioned in its report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2019-20 that it is looking at a calibrated unwinding of emergency measures so that it does not lead to a repeat of the 2008-09 crisis when the stimulus led to higher inflation and surging bad loans. The RBI had introduced policy rate cuts and liquidity infusion,
regulatory forbearance and time-bound resolution with additional provisions to ease the economic impact of the pandemic.
The meeting also reviewed the current economic situation, global and domestic challenges and various areas of operations of the RBI, including ways to strengthen grievance redress mechanisms in banks.
The Centre will also take up the matter of credit expansion with the RBI and banks separately, with the secretary of
department of financial services expected to hold meetings with all stakeholders in Mumbai on Wednesday and Thursday. The meeting will focus on ensuring credit to micro, small and medium enterprises, manufacturing and capital raising by banks, said the person cited above.
RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has assured that the central bank will support the ₹12 lakh crore government borrowing programme in the next financial year in a non-disruptive manner.