Biz resumption falters, but still above pre-Covid levels
MUMBAI: The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (Nibri) fell to 100.6 for the week ended September 5 from a record high of 102.8 in the previous week, but was still above the pre-pandemic level of 100.
The index tracks high-frequency data.
Mobility trends were mixed, with the Google workplace index rising 3.3 percentage points, while the retail and recreation index was down by 1 percentage point.
The Apple driving index fell by a whopping 11.2 percentage points. Power demand declined by 4.3% week-on-week after rising 0.1% last week. In contrast, the labour participation rate inched up from 40.8% to 41%.
During August, ultra-highfrequency indicators, such as goods and services tax (GST), e-way bills, railway freight revenue and the services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved, but data for automobile sales, merchandize trade and manufacturing PMI was lacklustre. Services PMI was up from 45.4 in July to 56.7, while manufacturing PMI fell from 55.3 in July to 52.3 in August.
However, this was partly due to the supply bottlenecks, said Nomura on Monday.
“The pace of vaccination picked up to an average of 7.4 million doses per day in September from 5.4 million in August, and 12% of the population has been fully vaccinated. This is helping cap mortality rates, even as the number of cases has risen marginally (largely driven by Kerala). We expect gross domestic product growth of 9.2% year-on-year in FY22, which we lowered from 10.4%. A third wave is a downside risk, but we expect the business cycle to improve,” Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi said.
August trade data for India was robust in headline growth terms, but sequential momentum has softened, Nomura said in a separate note.