Punjab: The Congress gamble
While picking a Dalit CM may work, the party has mismanaged the state, and erred on Captain
By making it untenable for Captain Amarinder Singh to continue as Punjab’s chief minister (CM), and now picking Charanjeet Singh Channi as the next CM, the Congress leadership appears to believe it has warded off anti-incumbency, ended the internal factional battle between Mr Singh and state party president Navjot Singh Sidhu, and strengthened the party in the run-up to the 2022 polls. Appointing Mr Channi, a Dalit leader, as CM is indeed smart political symbolism — he will be the first Dalit CM in a state with 31% Dalits. But this does not take away from the Congress’s poor management of the Punjab crisis, which has potentially jeopardised its electoral prospects and enhanced the trust deficit between senior party leaders and the Nehru-Gandhi family nationally.
Captain Amarinder Singh led the party to a win in Punjab in 2017. He is also a rare national figure in the party who is respected for his military service, politics of moderation, and personal temperament. It is indeed true that his popularity had dipped in recent years, and this needed correction. But working with the CM, rather than against him, would have been far more productive. After all, the Congress has lived with CMs with a less-than-impressive track record, and allowed them the opportunity to test their credentials in elections. But the fact that the leadership did not do so stems from Captain being far more autonomous than the party leadership in Delhi (particularly Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi) was comfortable with. Instead, the encouragement to Mr Sidhu, a recent recruit to the party who was openly undermining a party leader; his elevation as party president; and possible signals to party legislators against Mr Singh contributed to undermining the CM’s authority.
As the Bharatiya Janata Party showed in Uttarakhand, Karnataka and Gujarat, it has the ability to change CMs without a major backlash — largely due to Narendra Modi’s authority and a culture of organisational discipline. The Congress is attempting to replicate the same pattern of control, except that its party leadership does not carry the same credibility, given its depleted ability to win votes. Mr Singh’s sense of hurt, and fierce criticism of both Delhi and Mr Sidhu, will cost the Congress in terms of both optics and votes in Punjab; it will also lead to deeper unease among other senior leaders about the direction of the party; and Mr Channi’s elevation could well sow the seeds of a new power conflict for leadership in the state unit. Instead of resolving a crisis, the Congress may have created another one.