PM Trudeau tipped to stay in power
TORONTO: With hours to go before Canada holds snap elections, it appears that barring a miracle, the results will be a rerun of the 2019 polls when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had won but missed out on the majority mark.
The incumbent PM is likely to pip his Conservative rival Erin O’Toole to the post and remain in Ottawa to head a minority government for the second time in a row. Trudeau had announced snap polls on August 15 to get majority but going by the trends, it looks unlikely now. Surveys consistently point to the Liberals under the leadership of Trudeau emerging as the single largest party and favourite to form the next government.
In a release titled “Déjà vu all over again?” the non-partisan polling agency Angus Reid Institute (ARI) stated, “The Liberals and the Conservatives are separated by very little daylight, fighting for advantage in a race that may now depend on factors not entirely in their control: voter turnout and the performance of other parties.”
That appears to be direction predicted by the CBC poll tracker as it has the ruling party at 150 seats, 20 short of the majority mark, while the main opposition Conservative Party is at 118. If the figures hold, Trudeau’s party will be seven short of the seats it garnered in 2019 while the Conservatives, will drop three.
A somewhat brighter prospect is predicted by the Ottawa-based market research company Advanced Symbolics’ Artificial Intelligence-based engine Polly, as it placed the Liberals at 163 seats on Saturday evening, an improvement of six over 2019, and on the cusp of the majority mark in the 338-seat House of Commons, but also said the likelihood of a minority was at 66%, twice that of a majority.
Among the factors affecting Trudeau’s ambition could be the continued displeasure of Canadians over holding elections in the midst of the fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.
A poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs for Global News noted that at the outset of the campaign, 56% of respondents didn’t think an election at this time was necessary and that figure has only increased, to 69%.