Heatwaves hit wheat yields, exports at risk
Hot weather across north India has cut wheat yields at a time when the country is counting on a bumper crop to tap an export market left struggling with a gap in supply due to the Ukraine war, farmers and traders said.
The main winter staple is currently being harvested in major grain-bowl states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Cultivators said their per-acre yields (one acre equals 0.40 hectare) have fallen 10-15%.
Heatwave conditions in March, when the crop was in advanced ripening stage, shrivelled grains, affecting both quality and weight of output, farmers said.
In February, the government forecast wheat production would be a record 111.32 million tonnes this year, against 109.59 million tonnes the previous year. An early summer marked by nearly a month of above-normal temperatures in March now threatens to upend that estimate.
“I have harvested five acres of my wheat crop so far. My average yield has been 16 quintal an acre. Last year, it was 23 quintal an acre,” said Daljit Singh Sandhu, a farmer in Punjab’s Ferozepur district said. A quintal equals 100 kg.
In neighbouring Haryana’s Babbain village, near the historic town
of Kurukshetra, wheat-grower Jaspal Singh Nain said his wheat yields fell by five quintals an acre, which means he will earns about ₹11,000 less per acre given that minimum support prices are about ₹2,015. Extreme dry and hot weather prior to wheat harvest causes a condition known as terminal-heat stress, which wilts crops. Such a weather pattern last occurred in 2010, when wheat yields dropped 26% in Punjab, according to data from the Ludhiana-based Borlaug Institute.
India is relying on surplus stocks and an anticipated bumper harvest to plug a gap in global wheat supplies due to the Ukraine war. India is looking to export wheat to countries such as Egypt, Turkey, Philippines, a few African nations and even Europe, as food
prices soar.
On April 15, Egypt, the world’s top wheat importer, approved India as a supplier to fill a sizeable void in its domestic stocks due to the war. Commerce minister Piyush Goyal last week said the government was confident India’s wheat exports in the current fiscal will breach the initial target of 10 million tonne and may even touch 15 million tonne.
World food prices jumped significantly in March — up 12.6% from February — to reach their “highest levels ever” due to the Ukraine war, according to a latest update by the FAO. Ukraine and Russia account for around 25% of global wheat exports, now disrupted by war. And global wheat exports account for around 25% of total global wheat production.