US midterms: Uphill climb for Democrats
Beyond economics, two fault lines will constitute the political subtext of the electoral campaign — race and gender. For the Democrats, the first poses a challenge, the second an opportunity
As the American electoral season kicks in — elections for all 435 seats to the House of Representatives and one-third of the seats in the Senate are scheduled for November — the primary focus is on the economy. The Joe Biden administration cites its jobcreation record and pandemic relief policies as achievements. The Republicans highlight inflation, particularly the increase in gas prices, and begin as the clear favourites.
But beyond economics, two fundamental fault lines will constitute the political subtext of the campaign — race and gender. For the Democrats, the first poses a challenge, the second an opportunity.
Biden won the presidency due to the Black vote. This is not hyperbole. Jim Clyburn, an influential Black Congressman from South Carolina, mobilised the Black constituency in the state to help Biden become the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination after early primary losses. Black voters saw Biden — a White man with centrist politics who could reach out to White working class voters and allay their anxieties, but who also had a track record in favour of racial justice and served as deputy to a Black president — as best positioned to defeat Donald Trump.
In turn, Biden promised to nominate a Black woman as a justice to the Supreme Court — a promise he fulfilled with the nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson. Biden also repaid his debt by picking Kamala Harris as his running mate and then appointing, arguably, the most inclusive executive branch in American history. Take two examples. Lloyd Austin, as secretary of defense, is the first Black person to head the Pentagon. And just last week, Biden nominated Karine Jean-Pierre as the White House press secretary. For the first time in history, a Black and an openly gay woman will be the face of the administration on television screens every day.
But Biden’s election also happened at the peak of the Black Lives Matter movement. This led to a set of structural demands — a re-examination of American history from the lens of racism to ensure dignity for African-Americans, criminal justice reforms to protect their lives, and voting rights reforms to prevent their disenfranchisement. On all three issues, Biden has failed to move the needle, both due to explicit Republican opposition and the implicit fear of a White majoritarian backlash.
On education, the Republicans have mobilised their base on the issue of teaching of critical race theory (CRT) in school textbooks (it is barely taught, but CRT has become code for any reference to America’s oppressive past). The GOP has also pushed back on attempts to make educational institutions more inclusive. In Virginia last year, Republican candidate and now governor Glenn Youngkin won with a single-minded focus on education. This also helps the Republicans win over a segment of Indian-American votes, who fear losing out on seats in elite schools if affirmative action policies for Black students are introduced. Biden’s instinct is to stay away from history and education wars.
The Republicans also picked on the ill-thought-out Defund the Police campaign of progressives in the wake of the Black Lives Movement. As law and order issues have gained salience, the Democrats have turned defensive. Both in his budget, and in his State of the Union Address, Biden proclaimed his policy was to “fund the police”. But the fear of a Republican onslaught on the issue has also buried serious discussions on the criminal justice system, which is undoubtedly tilted against the Blacks.
On voting rights, Black groups believe that the system is skewed against them, citing Republican gerrymandering of electoral districts and attempts to block their access to voting through various instruments in states. While supporting it in principle, Biden did not invest political capital in pushing through voting reforms legislation, which would have required challenging the filibuster rule in the Senate, till January. The reforms didn’t pass.
And so, Biden’s approach to the race question has been a dual one. Be inclusive and diverse in appointments and offer symbolic recognition. Stay away from the hard questions of embedded racism in institutions. The lack of action on the second demotivates Black voters who expected real change under the Democrats. But progress on the first riles up White voters who do not wish to see any inclusion based on racial lines. Sustaining the multiracial coalition, on the same scale as in 2020, will be a key challenge for the Democrats in 2022.
It is in this backdrop that the leaked draft of the majority opinion of the Supreme Court, overturning Roe v Wade, has brought the second fault line of American politics to the fore — gender.
The leak has triggered a curious mood in Washington. On the cusp of their biggest victory in decades, the Republicans aren’t celebrating, yet. They remain focused on the inflation message. And they are not quite sure how the court verdict will play out beyond their base, given that all polls find substantial support for abortionrelated protections.
On the other hand, the Democrats, on the cusp of losing a cherished right, are galvanised. The party sees it as an opportunity to consolidate its base, ensure a higher turnout, raise funds, and win over independent voters, particularly women, in swing seats. Biden, a Catholic, is also seeking to frame it in the larger context of erosion of freedom and privacy. But it is too early to judge which party will benefit electorally from a verdict which is not out yet.
This mix of race and gender-based questions, laced with immigration policy debates, in a context dominated by economic concerns, will determine American politics this year. The Democrats have an uphill climb.