Hindustan Times (Lucknow)

Why monsoon rainfall matters

Normal rains, spread out evenly, will boost key sectors of the Indian economy

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The India Meteorolog­ical Department (IMD), the country’s national weather bureau, has predicted an above-normal monsoon season with a potential boost to the world’s fifthlarge­st economy. Plentiful June-September rains not only bring respite from a scorching summer, but they are also the lifeblood of the country. The rains are critical for three reasons. One, they drive agricultur­al output and growth, with farming still the largest source of employment. Two, nearly half of the country’s net-sown area does not have access to irrigation and therefore, depends on the rains to grow a number of crops vital for food security. Three, robust farm output helps to put a lid on food prices, which have remained above the central bank’s comfort level.

According to IMD’s forecast for the 2024 southwest monsoon, rainfall is expected at 106% of its long-period average or LPA, with a model error of ±5%. Rainfall between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average of 87 cm for the four-month rainy season is considered normal. The monsoon, which delivers 70% of the country’s annual rainfall, also replenishe­s 89 nationally important water reservoirs critical for irrigation, drinking and power generation. Most of these are currently depleted by nearly half of their usual capacity, according to official data.

Hopes of a robust monsoon became brighter in recent months with a weakening El Niño, a weather anomaly marked by higher Pacific Ocean surface temperatur­es. Its effects ripple around the globe: An El Niño is usually associated with hot, dry weather in India. Weather conditions are set to enter a so-called neutral stage by the time the monsoon sets in, usually in the first week of June. The neutral phase is expected to give way to a La Niña phase, which increases rainfall in summer in India.

A good spell of showers will potentiall­y boost key sectors of the economy. When farm growth increases, rural spending goes up too, spurring demand in the economy. For instance, in a normalmons­oon year, nearly half of all motorcycle­s are sold in the countrysid­e and semi-urban centres.

The cautionary tale in all of this, however, is that the rains need to be evenly spread, across regions and the season. A second IMD forecast due in a month will deliver a more granular picture of how the rains will fare in terms of distributi­on.

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