No permanent bastions, 4th phase seats more evenly contested in past

BJP faces the challenge of repeating its 2019 Lok Sabha performance when it won all the 13 seats, SP looks to regain Kannauj, BSP out to retain its hold over Dalit voters

LUCKNOW: The nomination process begins on Thursday for 13 Lok Sabha seats that will go to polls in the fourth phase on May 13. In the past, these seats have been more evenly contested than 36 constituencies of the first three phases, which were strongholds of specific political parties. For instance, the BJP dominated the seats of the first two rounds and a mix of the BJP and the SP in the third in previous elections.

The fourth phase constituencies include Shahjahanpur (SC), Kheri, Dhaurehra, Sitapur, Hardoi (SC), Misrikh (SC), Unnao, Farrukhabad, Etawah (SC), Kannauj, Kanpur, Akbarpur and Bahraich (SC).

Shahjahanpur, Hardoi, Sitapur, Unnao, Etawah and Bahraich feature a big chunk of Dalit voters. Riding on the Modi wave, the BJP swept all the 13 seats in the fourth phase in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections even though the SP and the BSP were allied at the time. This election, the BSP is contesting independently while the SP has stitched a pre-poll alliance with the Congress.

If the BJP faces the challenge of replicating its 2019 performance in this phase, the SP’s top concern is to regain the prestigious Kannauj, a family seat it lost narrowly to the BJP in 2019. The BSP has never been able to open its account in six of the constituencies — Shahjahanpur, Kheri, Hardoi, Farrukhabad, Kannauj and Kanpur. The SP has historically struggled to win the Kanpur and Akbarpur seats.

SHAHJAHANPUR (SC)

The BJP won this seat thrice in 1998, 2014 and 2019, the Congress twice in 1999 and 2004 while the Samajwadi Party (SP) could win this seat only once in 2009. In 2019, the BJP’s Arun Kumar Sagar (58.09% votes) won this seat by defeating BSP’s Amar Chand Jauhar (35.46), a joint candidate of the SP-BSP-RLD alliance.

KHERI

The BJP has won this seat four times since 1996, emerging victorious here for two consecutive terms in 2014 and 2019. The SP has won here thrice while the Congress last bagged this seat in 2009. The BJP’s Ajay Mishra Teni, a minister of state in the Modi government, registered his win in 2019 as well as 2014, defeating SP’s Purvi Verma in 2019 by securing 53.62% votes. The Congress came third with an 8.11% vote share. Teni was in the eye of the storm as his son Ashish Mishra was a key accused in the Lakhimpur Kheri violence case of 2021. Setting all the criticism aside, the BJP has chosen to rely on Teni, the sitting MP, by making him the candidate for the third time. Challenging him is the SP’s Utkarsh Verma.

DHAUREHRA

In the last Lok Sabha election, BJP’s Rekha Verma (48.21% vote share) defeated the BSP’s alliance candidate Arshad Siddiqi (33.11%). The BJP has repeated its sitting MP Rekha Verma while the SP has fielded Anand Bhadouria. The BSP has given the ticket to Shyam Kishore Awasthi, a Brahmin.

SITAPUR

In 2019, BJP’s Rajesh Verma with 48.3% vote share defeated BSP’s Nakul Dubey who got 38.84% votes while the Congress secured 9% votes. The BJP has fielded sitting MP Rajesh Verma pitted who is against Congress’s Rakesh Rathore.

HARDOI (SC)

In 2019, the BJP’s Jai Prakash Rawat with 53.71% vote share defeated the SP’s Shiv Prasad Verma, who as the SP-BSP-RLD’s joint candidate, got 41.8% of the total votes polled in the constituency. Both the BJP and the SP have reposed faith in their old candidates in 2024.

MISRIKH (SC)

The little-known constituency consists of three assembly segments of Hardoi, and one each of Sitapur and Kanpur districts. In 2019, the BJP’s Ashok Rawat defeated BSP’s Neelu Satyarthi who as an alliance candidate got 42.22% of the votes.

UNNAO

Known as the “Land of Pen and Sword”, Unnao district also is high on the SC population at more than 30% as per the 2011 Census.

The BJP’s Swami Sakshi Ji Maharaj won by a landslide in 2019 when he defeated SP’s Arun Shankar Shukla. Congress candidate Anu Tandon finished third with 15% of the votes. The BJP has fielded its sitting MP again while the SP and the BSP have named Anu Tandon and Ashok K Pandey, respectively.

FARRUKHABAD

The BJP has won this seat four times including in 1996 and 1998. The SP won twice in 1999 and 2004 and the Congress last won in 2009. In 2019, the BJP’s Mukesh Rajput with 56.8% vote share defeated BSP’s Manoj Agrawal who secured 34.71% of the votes. While the BJP has retained its sitting MP, the SP has fielded Naval Kishore Kashyap, both being the OBC candidates. The BSP has made the contest interesting by playing the Brahmin card, fielding Kranti Pandey.

ETAWAH (SC)

The Etawah Lok Sabha constituency was an SP bastion, which the party won in 1999, 2004 and 2009. This constituency with a sizeable number of Dalit voters once elected BSP founder Kanshi Ram, too, to the Lok Sabha in 1991. The BJP won in 2014.

The BJP’s Ram Shankar Katheria defeated the SP’s Kamlesh Kumar in 2019 with the Congress getting only 16,570 votes (1.61%).

The BJP has repeated its sitting MP in 2024 while the SP and the BSP have fielded Jitendra Dohare and Ram Singh Baghel, respectively.

KANNAUJ

The BJP demolished the SP’s fort in 2019 when its candidate Subrat Pathak defeated the then sitting MP Dimple Yadav, albeit by a narrow margin. The BJP has repeated its sitting MP while the BSP has fielded a Muslim candidate Imran Bin Zafar. The SP is yet to name its candidate.

KANPUR

In 2019, the BJP’s Satyadev Pachauri with 55.6% vote share won by defeating Congress’ Sri Prakash Jaiswal who managed 37.11% votes. This time both the BJP and the Congress have fielded Brahmin candidates Ramesh Awasthi and Alok Mishra. The BSP has given the ticket to Kuldeep Bhadauriya.

AKBARPUR

Once a BSP bastion, this constituency sent party supremo Mayawati to Lok Sabha thrice in a row in 1998, 1999 and 2004. Earlier, in 1996, also the seat went to the BSP.

In 2019, BJP’s Devendra Bhole with 56.62% votes defeated BSP’s candidate Nisha Sachan who secured 29.82% votes. In 2014 also, Bhole had won. In 2024, the BJP has repeated its candidate while the SP has fielded Raja Ram Pal. The BSP has named a Brahmin candidate Rajesh Kumar Dwivedi.

BAHRAICH (SC)

The BJP won the seat in 1991, 1996, 1999, 2014 and 2019. The SP and the BSP won once each in 2004 and 1998. In 2019, the BJP’s Akshaibar Lal defeated SP’s Shabbir Valmiki. In 2024, the BJP has fielded Anand Gond while the SP nominated Ramesh Gautam. The BSP is yet to name its pick.