Internal surveys show BJP gaining ground in Odisha
The BJP, which aims to increase its seat tally in the 2024 general polls, appears to be getting encouraging reports from Odisha as internal surveys show that it is gaining some ground in a contest with the ruling BJD, people aware of the matter said.
HT has learnt that surveys were carried out by both the parties over the last few weeks, and they appeared to agree that the BJP could emerge as the largest party in terms of Lok Sabha seats. To be sure, they differed on how large the lead could be.
The BJP’s internal survey gave the party 15 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats, almost double the eight it won in 2019, the people cited above said. The BJD’s survey, meanwhile, suggested that – as things stand – the party's numbers would go down from 12 to 10, while the BJP could either draw level or inch ahead. HT has not seen the surveys but their details were shared by people with direct knowledge of the matter.
The surveys for the assembly elections, however, showed that Naveen Patnaik’s BJD would manage a comfortable lead. BJP’s internal assessment projected 70-odd seats to Patnaik’s party, and around 50 to the BJP. The BJD’s internal survey was more optimistic, giving 90-100 seats in the 147member assembly to the ruling party. Both surveys showed a big gain for the BJP, which won just 23 assembly seats in 2019. “We find that while Patnaik’s popularity after 25 years is still there, there is a lot of anti-incumbency against his MLAs,’’ said a BJP leader working on the Odisha campaign. “That coupled with Modi ji’s growing popularity will ensure our good performance.”
One of the beneficiaries of these factors may be BJP spokesperson and Puri candidate Sambit Patra. After losing by a relatively small margin of 11,700 votes in 2019, he hopes to bridge that. “As far as the election campaign is concerned, we are seeing that the Modi wave is growing. Four sections of society – Garib (poor), Yuva (youth) Annadata (farmers) and Nari (women) – will make up our GYAN wave. They are all with Modi,’’ Patra told HT.
The BJD declined to officially comment on these surveys, despite calls to various party members and the official spokesperson.
The Congress, which is the third player in the state, may retain Koraput and win one other seat, according to BJP’s internal survey. But the Congress’s state in-charge, Ajoy Kumar, said their numbers were underestimated. “The BJP should worry about their own seats. We expect up to 10 seats to win and their marriage with BJD should be made public,’’ he said.
A BJP-BJD alliance, which appeared to be on the cards earlier this poll season, could not be sealed despite several rounds of talks between leaders from both sides. Some of the tougher areas for the BJP to break ground in are likely to be the coastal and southern belt, according to people aware of the party’s survey. One of the BJP’s senior leaders, Jay Panda – he was earlier with the BJD and switched in 2019 – may find it challenging in Kendrapara, BJP’s surveys suggested. Jay Panda is, however, optimistic. “After years of steady growth to becoming a close number two in Odisha, the BJP is experiencing a huge surge. There is enormous support throughout the state for a third term for PM Modi. BJP will sweep a majority of the seats, including a historic first win in Kendrapara,” he said.
Experts said the BJP will fare better than last time. “Predicting an exact number would be difficult at this point because polls are still several weeks away, but the BJP will certainly fare better than last time. The BJD, on its part, is still strong and will leave no stone unturned to ensure a record sixth term for Patnaik as CM... it would be a hard fought and interesting elections in Odisha, unlike the onesided affairs,” Sandeep Mishra, editor of Odisha Bytes News, said.