World may lose 19% income to climate change in next 25 yrs
NEW DELHI: The global economy is expected to lose about 19% income in the next 25 years due to climate change, with countries least responsible for the problem and having minimum resources to adapt to impacts suffering the most, according to a new study.
The study by scientists at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) published on Wednesday said South Asia and Africa will be strongly affected with a median income loss of around 22% in 2050.
Maximilian Kotz, a PIK scientist, said, “Our study finds that the global economy is committed to an average income loss of 19% by 2049 due to past emissions. This corresponds to a 17% reduction in global GDP.” The analysis shows climate change will cause massive economic damages within the next 25 years in almost all countries around the world, also in highly developed ones such as Germany, France, and the United States, said scientist Leonie Wenz, who led the study published in the journal Nature.
The predicted loss is massive and already about six times more than what it would cost to reduce carbon emissions enough to keep the average temperature rise below 2°C, the researchers said.
These economic damages are mostly due to rising average temperatures. However, when the researchers also considered other factors like rains and storms, the predicted economic damages increased by about 50% and varied more from one region to another.
The researchers looked at detailed weather and economic data from over 1,600 regions globally, covering the last 40 years.
While most regions in the world are expected to suffer economically due to climate change, they said regions near the poles might see some benefits due to less temperature variability.
On the other hand, the hardest-hit regions will likely be those closer to the equator, which have historically contributed less to global emissions and currently have lower incomes.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation’s “State of the Global Climate 2023” report, greenhouse gas levels, surface temperatures, ocean heat and acidification, and sea level rise reached record highs in 2023. Climate science says the world needs to slash CO2 emissions by 43% by 2030 to limit the average temperature rise to 1.5°C, the guardrail to prevent worsening of climate impacts.
The business-as-usual scenario will take the world to a temperature rise of around 3°C by the end of the century, scientists have warned.